Taking the Market's Temperature on this Weekend of November 14-15

Taking the Market's Temperature on this Weekend of November 14-15

------------------------------------

My RIF topped out in late May/ early June, and bottomed in mid September and has since been steadily climbing back. What does the ratio-based McClellan Summation Index have to say about the state of the market on this weekend of Nov 14-15?

Your portfolio's trajectory this year mirrors the exact breadth cycle tracked by the NYSE Ratio-Adjusted McClellan Summation Index (RASI).

Heading into this weekend of November 14–15, 2026, the breadth data paints a picture of a market that has successfully cleared an intermediate washout, recovered into positive territory, and is now testing whether it has enough broad participation to sustain a major new leg higher.

1. How Your Portfolio Timeline Maps to 2026 Breadth

• The May/June Top: In mid-May 2026, Tom McClellan highlighted that the NYSE RASI stalled right around the critical +500 escape-velocity threshold as the McClellan Oscillator rolled over below zero. Failing to clear +500 decisively signaled that the spring advance lacked the broad liquidity needed to power straight through the weaker May–October seasonal window.

• The September Bottom: By late September 2026, the correction pushed the NYSE RASI down to roughly -522. In McClellan’s framework, readings below -500 represent a deep, washed-out oversold condition sufficient to mark the end of an ordinary intermediate correction within a longer-term uptrend. That September breadth washout aligns directly with your portfolio's mid-September trough.

• The Autumn Recovery: Since that late-September low, broad market participation has steadily repaired itself, lifting the Summation Index out of deep negative territory and back above the zero line.

2. Where the Indicator Stands This Weekend (Close of Nov. 13, 2026)

Because the RASI is a cumulative running total of the daily Ratio-Adjusted McClellan Oscillator, watching both the index level and its daily directional engine tells you what is happening under the hood:

Metric (NYSE Close: Fri, Nov 13, 2026)	Reading	What It Signals
NYSE Summation Index	+251.38 (down from +260.56 on Nov 12)	Net Positive, Near-Term Pause: The market is well off its September lows and sits firmly in positive territory, but it has not yet reached the +500 threshold that confirms runaway bull momentum.
NYSE McClellan Oscillator	-9.17 (improved from -18.44 on Nov 12)	Mild Consolidation: Because the oscillator is slightly below zero, the Summation Index is ticking down marginally day-over-day. However, it requires only +82 net advancing issues on Monday to push the oscillator back to zero and turn the Summation Index upward again.
Broader US Common Stock Oscillator	+1.20	Stabilizing Participation: Looking across all eligible US-listed common shares, short-term breadth (19-day EMA) is holding slightly ahead of intermediate breadth (39-day EMA).

(Note: A sharp divergence exists between sectors right now—while heavy AI, data center, and semiconductor stocks experienced a post-election shakeout in early November that spiked Nasdaq new 52-week lows, broader NYSE-listed value, dividend, and interest-rate-sensitive names have held up far better, keeping the NYSE Summation Index in positive territory.)

3. The Key Takeaway for the Weeks Ahead

The ratio-adjusted summation data is giving a constructive, mid-recovery signal, with one clear benchmark to watch:

1. The +500 "Escape Velocity" Test: In McClellan’s methodology, a rally off a deep negative reading (like September's -522) proves it has true institutional sponsorship when the RASI pushes decisively above +500. Sitting in the mid-200s right now means the recovery is healthy and intact, but still in its proving phase. If the RASI rallies above +500 over the coming weeks, it signals strong breadth tailwinds carrying into early 2027. Conversely, if it stalls below +500 and rolls over again—just as it did in May—it warns that the advance remains selective and vulnerable to chop.

2. Sector Rotation Tailwinds: Because the recent November selling pressure has been concentrated in high-multiple tech and data-center names rather than broad NYSE issues, dividend-oriented and real-asset portfolios have been well-positioned to keep climbing while mega-cap growth digests its gains.

-------------------------------------

How does the current Nasdaq McClellan Summation Index (NASI) compare to the NYSE (NYSI), and what does that divergence mean for value vs. growth stocks?

There is a stark contrast right now between the NYSE McClellan Summation Index (NYSI) and the Nasdaq McClellan Summation Index (NASI), reflecting a classic institutional rotation out of high-multiple growth and into cash-flow-generating value and dividend sectors.

1. NYSE (NYSI) vs. Nasdaq (NASI) Breadth Snapshot

As of the Friday, November 13, 2026 market close, the two exchanges are operating in completely different breadth regimes:

Indicator / Universe (Close: Nov 13, 2026)	Summation Index	Daily Oscillator	Technical Regime
NYSE Composite (NYSI / NYMO)	+251.38	-9.17	Constructive / Net Positive: Firmly above the zero line, consolidating mid-recovery after rebounding from September's oversold lows.
Nasdaq-100 (NDX Breadth)	-462	+4.1	Negative / Stabilizing: Deep in negative cumulative territory following early-November AI and semiconductor selling, though short-term momentum is starting to bounce.
All Nasdaq-Listed Stocks (NASI)	-1,931	+0.1	Severely Depressed: Heavy structural drag across smaller, unprofitable, and speculative growth listings keeps the cumulative total deeply underwater.

2. Why the Two Indices Diverge So Sharply

• Structural Composition: The Nasdaq is heavily weighted toward unprofitable early-stage tech, biotech, and speculative growth companies that bleed cumulative breadth over time—a historical dynamic where $NASI spends far more time below zero than $NYSI. Meanwhile, the NYSE houses mature industrials, financials, utilities, REITs, and energy infrastructure firms.

• The November 2026 Catalyst: Following the November midterm elections, investors aggressively repriced AI capital-spending risks and regulatory scrutiny around data-center buildouts, triggering a sharp correction in semiconductors and mega-cap tech. While that wave of forced deleveraging crushed Nasdaq breadth, capital rotated directly into value-oriented sectors, real assets, and resource/dividend names on the NYSE and TSX.

• Internal Nasdaq Split: Even within the Nasdaq, notice the gap between the Nasdaq-100 oscillator (+4.1) and All Nasdaq-listed stocks (+0.1). Larger, cash-rich tech companies are beginning to stabilize, whereas smaller, speculative growth names remain starved of liquidity.

3. What This Divergence Means for Value vs. Growth Stocks

When NYSI holds comfortably above zero while NASI sits deeply negative, it carries three practical implications for portfolio positioning:

1. Value and Dividend Leadership is Confirmed by Breadth: A positive NYSI paired with a negative NASI shows that the market is not in a broad systemic liquidation—money is rotating, not exiting. Value stocks, financials, pipelines, utilities, and real estate investment trusts (REITs) benefit from lower valuation multiples and steady cash distributions that insulate them from growth-multiple compression.

2. Growth Faces "Overhead Supply" Resistance: Because NASI and the Nasdaq-100 Summation Index (-462) have suffered significant technical damage, rallies in beaten-down growth and AI infrastructure stocks are likely to encounter heavy resistance as trapped buyers sell into strength. Until the Nasdaq McClellan Oscillator sustains positive readings long enough to lift NASI back toward the zero line, growth rebounds remain tactical bounces rather than confirmed new uptrends.

3. Watch for Spillover vs. Convergence: In healthy bull markets, NYSI eventually pulls NASI higher as confidence broadens back out. The key risk to monitor over the next few weeks is whether persistent weakness in speculative Nasdaq names eventually drags NYSI back below zero—which would warn that liquidity tightening is spreading from growth into value. As long as NYSI holds above zero and works toward the +500 threshold, value and income-oriented equities retain the clear structural tailwind.

-----------------------------------

What does the high-low index say about the health of the NYSE?

The NYSE High-Low Index is flashing a cautionary, defensive warning that contrasts sharply with the constructive recovery shown by the McClellan Summation Index (NYSI).

While broad advance-decline participation has bounced back above zero since September, 52-week new lows have expanded aggressively over the past two weeks—pushing the High-Low Index down into weak territory (hovering in the low-to-mid 30% range as of early-to-mid November, down from its autumn rebound).

1. The Underlying Numbers (Close of Friday, Nov. 13, 2026)

The NYSE High-Low Index tracks the 10-day moving average of the New Highs Percent (New 52 Week Highs) / (New 52 Week Highs + New 52 Week Lows). Looking at the raw 52-week data heading into this weekend explains why the indicator is under pressure:

NYSE 52-Week Breadth Metric	Fri, Nov 13, 2026	Thu, Nov 12, 2026	What It Signals
NYSE New 52-Week Highs	26	~35–40	Narrow Leadership: Very few NYSE issues are breaking out to fresh annual highs.
NYSE New 52-Week Lows	303	221–222	Expanding Breakdowns: New lows expanded by more than 35% on Friday alone, showing persistent localized selling.
Daily High-Low Ratio	7.9% (26 of 329)	~15%	Heavy Drag: Daily readings well below 20% pull the 10-day High-Low Index steadily lower.

(Note: After dropping to an oversold trough of 26% during the September correction, NYSEHILO rebounded into autumn before rolling back down to 34% by November 6—and Friday's jump to 303 new lows keeps downward pressure on the 10-day average.)

2. What This Tells Us About the Health of the NYSE

When you read the High-Low Index alongside the McClellan Summation Index (+251.38), three specific takeaways emerge about the NYSE's internal health right now:

1. Bifurcation Between "Average Stocks" and "Broken Stocks": A positive $NYSI paired with 303 NYSE new lows means that while the median NYSE stock is holding steady or grinding slightly higher (71.8% of S&P 500 stocks remain above their 50-day moving average), a specific subset of interest-rate-sensitive, heavily indebted, or closed-end/preferred NYSE listings is actively breaking down to 52-week lows.

2. A "Yellow Caution Light" on Offense: In Point & Figure and Dorsey Wright breadth frameworks, readings below 30%–35% indicate that the market is in a defensive posture. Until the High-Low Index stops falling and reverses upward (which requires daily NYSE new lows to contract sharply from the 300+ level back below 100), breakout buying carries a high failure rate.

3. Defensive Quality Is Outperforming: Looking at which stocks are hitting the few remaining 52-week highs versus the 52-week lows confirms the defensive tilt—blue-chip staples and healthcare names like Johnson & Johnson (JNJ), Coca-Cola (KO), and Procter & Gamble (PG) are making new highs, while leveraged mortgage REITs (like Annaly Capital, NLY) and rate-sensitive foreign/cyclical names are populating the new-lows list.

3. What to Watch Next Week

For the NYSE to confirm that its autumn recovery has durable legs rather than stalling out, NYSE new 52-week lows need to contract below 100. In healthy uptrends, the McClellan Summation Index and the High-Low Index rise together; as long as new lows remain elevated above 200–300 per session, the High-Low Index is warning investors to prioritize balance-sheet quality and dividend durability over aggressive cyclical risk.

------------------------------------------

Source

Google Gemini

Dateline Canada - Bill-C224 was Gutted and sent back as an Empty Shell!

Dateline Canada - Bill-C224 was Gutted and sent back as an Empty Shell!

--------------------------------------------

Urgent: Report stage for Bill-C224 is December 3.

Liberal members of the of the Health Committee deleted every clause of Bill-C224, but the bill returns to the House of Commons at report stage on December 3. MP Blaine Calkins can move to restore the original clauses.

The committee gutted the bill...But at report stage, MPs can put the original clauses back. MP Blaine Calkins is ready to move the amendments.

Without restoration, essential nutrients stay trapped in pharmaceutical-style rules that raise prices, limit products, and restrict truthful information.

Natural health products are classed by law as food in the U.S. They are deemed by law to be safe in the U.S. There is no requirement for government pre-approval in the form of a licence in the U.S. This is because Congress passed the Dietary Supplement Health and Education Act, 1994.

Over 70% of Canadians rely on natural health products. Health Canada is over-regulating safe, time-tested natural health products by treating them like pharmaceutical drugs, that often come with lengthy lists of dangerous side-effects. We deserve the freedom to choose how we care for our health and our families.

Natural health products (NHPs) include our vital nutrients and our natural remedies. Recently our NHPs were moved into the class of drugs reserved for dangerous chemical drugs. Vital nutrients such as Magnesium and Vitamin D are essential for health. They should be promoted. They should not be put into the restrictive therapeutic product category. This is morally wrong and small and medium-sized Canadian natural health product companies will drown under Health Canada's new regulations.

Visit nhppa.org/last-chance-for-224/ to find everything you need to get involved. Send emails, print letters, download ready-made social media posts, contact candidates.

------------------------------------------

Souces

https://nhppa.org/last-chance-for-224/

When Things go Wrong

When Things go Wrong

----------------------------------

No one bats a thousand percent in baseball. And that goes for investing in the markets as well. 

Sometimes bad things are going to happen, like yesterday when both Stella Jones Inc (SJ) and Element Fleet Management Corp (EFN) both sold off sharply yesterday after announcing their earnings. I had highlighted both of these stocks as investing ideas in the last few months. That's the market. Sometimes bad things are going to happen. The best way to protect yourself when your blindsided by these unpleasant events is first to know what you own and keep your emotions in check. Stand back and evaluate the situation and decide weather you should continue to hold, sell or lighten up. You might even want to add to your position. It's up to you. As a do-it-yourself investor you are in charge of your investment portfolio and only you know about your current financial situation. Another question to ask yourself, is how much of my portfolio do these stocks make up? 

For disclosure purposes I hold Stella Jones, but not Element Fleet. I checked in with AI to get the lowdown on what happened yesterday to these two stocks.

--------------------------------------------------

Both companies reported their Q3 2026 financial results on November 4, 2026, and earnings misses alongside temporary execution headwinds triggered the sharp sell-offs on the TSX.

Here is a breakdown of what hit each stock:

1. Stella-Jones Inc. (TSX: SJ)

Stella-Jones reported Q3 2026 top-line revenue of $979 million (a modest 2.2% YoY increase) and adjusted EPS of $0.93, which fell short of market expectations (consensus was looking for over $1.00+ EPS and revenue around $1.01 billion).

• Fuel Cost Spike: Management cited roughly $10 million in unanticipated higher fuel costs during the quarter, directly eating into operating margins.

• Pricing Lags in Residential Lumber: Rising wholesale lumber prices forced Stella-Jones to raise prices, but implementation lags meant cost pressures weren't immediately passed along to customers in Q3.

• Margin Compression: Adjusted EBITDA fell to $159 million (16.2% margin) compared to $171 million (17.8% margin) a year ago.

• Expansion Downtime: Operations in their steel structures segment saw temporary downtime related to capacity expansion at their Candiac facility, shaving off ~$7 million in top-line growth.

• Management's Response: Executives announced a new Performance Optimization Program targeting up to $100 million in cumulative savings over three years, but near-term margin targets were pushed out closer to 2028, leading analysts to pull back near-term price targets.

2. Element Fleet Management Corp. (TSX: EFN)

Element Fleet reported Q3 2026 results that missed consensus expectations on the bottom line, prompting immediate analyst downgrades.

• Earnings Miss: EFN logged a slight miss on quarterly profit metrics despite continued top-line revenue and cash flow growth.

• Street Downgrades: Wall Street and Bay Street reacted quickly—most notably, TD Securities downgraded EFN from Buy to Hold and aggressively cut its price target from $31.00 down to $22.00.

• Multiple Compression: Given that EFN had been priced for high operational execution, the combination of a quarterly earnings miss and a high-profile broker downgrade sent retail and institutional investors to the exit doors simultaneously, driving the stock down nearly 11% in a single session.

Key Takeaways

Both sell-offs offer concrete examples of execution/timing mismatches rather than structural thesis breakdown:

1. SJ suffered from temporary cost-lag mismatches (higher fuel and unrecovered lumber inflation), which compressed EBITDA margins while long-term utility pole volumes remained positive.

2. EFN suffered from elevated market expectations where a slight operational miss triggered a swift re-rating and analyst price-target reduction.

-------------------------------------------

Source

Google Gemini

Cyberattack on Binance is Officially the Largest Single Theft of any kind in History

Cyberattack on Binance is Officially the Largest Single Theft of any kind in History

-----------------------------------------------------

On Feb. 2025, North Korean hackers stole $1.5 billion from a crptocurrency exchange called 'Bybit'. At the time it was the largest crpto heist ever. Now last Thursday, Oct. 29th, another crptocurrency exchange called, 'Binance' lost $6.5 billion to hackers. What do we know so far about this last crpto heist? 

The Thursday, October 29, 2026 cyberattack on Binance is officially the largest single theft of any kind in history. Draining approximately $6.36 billion to $6.43 billion in crypto assets across ten blockchains, the heist dwarfed the $1.5 billion stolen from Bybit in early 2025 by more than four times.

1. Who Did It?

Blockchain intelligence and cybersecurity firms (TRM Labs, Chainalysis, and Elliptic) have attributed the attack with high confidence to TraderTraitor, an elite North Korean state-sponsored hacking unit. The FBI previously named TraderTraitor as the group behind the February 2025 Bybit heist.

2. How the Attack Happened

The attack unfolded at high speed—draining the vast majority of the funds in just 20 minutes starting around 20:05 UTC.

• No Private Key Leak: Binance confirmed that main wallet private keys were not leaked.

• Attack Vectors: The exploit was traced to a compromised DevOps engineer's laptop, which allowed the attackers to access a service container. However, Binance co-CEO Richard Teng noted there were multiple, complex "additional points of breach" involving their hot wallet signing infrastructure.

• Ethereum Sweeper Exploitation: On Ethereum, the hackers used an EIP-7702 delegation (with 50 pre-signed authorizations prepared in advance) to transform a Binance hot wallet into an automated "sweeper" controlled by the hackers, draining funds continuously as they arrived.

3. Current Recovery Efforts & Asset Freezes

Out of the ~$6.4 billion stolen, roughly $2.7 billion to $3 billion in assets have already been frozen or seized.

• Issuers like Tether, Circle, and Ripple, along with decentralized protocol security teams (such as Arbitrum's Security Council), acted quickly to freeze centralized stablecoins (USDT, USDC) and tokens on-chain.

• In response, the hackers engaged in a frantic race against network freezes—selling stablecoins on decentralized exchanges, borrowing unfreezable assets like Ethereum (ETH) on lending platforms like Aave, and splitting 18,270 Bitcoin across automated peel-chain wallets.

4. Are Customer Funds Safe?

Yes. Binance confirmed that the breach only impacted its operational "hot wallets"—which hold funds used for immediate liquidity and active transactions—while the vast majority of user deposits remain secured in offline "cold wallets".

Binance co-CEO Richard Teng stated that the company will absorb the entire financial loss out of its own reserves. The exchange has pledged that no customer will lose funds and plans to release an updated Proof of Reserves report.

-------------------------------------------------

I assume that this story is still developing as we speak.

The situation is actively unfolding as blockchain intelligence firms (TRM Labs, Chainalysis, and Elliptic) track the stolen assets in real time.

Here are the critical updates that have emerged as of Saturday, October 31, 2026:

1. The "Smoking Gun" On-Chain Mistake

While blockchain analytics firms attributed the hack to North Korea’s TraderTraitor unit early on, investigators confirmed the link definitively when the hackers made a tactical slip-up. The attackers inadvertently sent a portion of the stolen Binance funds into the exact same automated laundering wallets holding proceeds from the Bitget hack.

2. Over $2.8 Billion Effectively Frozen

The total frozen or blocked funds has now reached $2.85 billion (~44% of the total heist).

• Stablecoin Issuers: Tether, Circle, and Ripple blacklisted addresses holding frozen USDT and USDC.

• DeFi Protocols: The Arbitrum Security Council and protocols like World Liberty Financial moved quickly to freeze additional tokens (including $74.6M in ARB tokens) before they could be bridged away.

3. Automated 24/7 Laundering Scripts

Because stablecoins can be frozen remotely by their issuers, the North Korean hackers have entered a high-speed race against network security teams. Elliptic reports that the hackers are using custom, automated scripts running around the clock to:

• Swap to Unfreezable Assets: Quickly trade stablecoins for native Ethereum (ETH) and Bitcoin (BTC) on decentralized exchanges. The hackers currently hold over 420,000 ETH and 18,270 BTC (roughly $2.4 billion in assets), which sit in raw addresses where no central issuer can freeze them.

• Peel Chains & Micro-Transactions: Scripted laundering wallets are firing off automated transactions every 30 to 96 seconds—routinely sending test transfers of exactly 1 TRX followed by irregular, randomized decimal amounts to obscure tracing algorithms.

4. Binance Operations & Proof of Reserves

Binance co-CEO Richard Teng reiterated that the loss will be entirely covered by internal exchange reserves. While hot wallet deposit and withdrawal services across several chains remain temporarily suspended or rate-limited for security checks, Binance confirmed it will publish an updated, audited Proof of Reserves report.

--------------------------------------

Explain how EIP-7702 delegation works and how the hackers used it in the 2026 Binance exploit.

The use of EIP-7702 in the October 2026 Binance hack marks a watershed moment in cyberattacks, representing the first time this specific Ethereum upgrade has been weaponized on a massive, multi-billion-dollar scale.

1. What is EIP-7702?

Proposed to bring smart-contract capabilities (like batching transactions and social recovery) to standard Ethereum accounts (EOAs—Externally Owned Accounts, or regular user/hot wallets), EIP-7702 allows a normal wallet to temporarily point to and execute smart-contract code.

When a wallet signs an EIP-7702 authorization tuple, it essentially attaches a piece of code to its address for a transaction. From that point forward, when the address is invoked, the Ethereum Virtual Machine (EVM) runs that external code inside the context of the victim's wallet.

2. How the Hackers Weaponized It Against Binance

During the exploit on Ethereum, the hackers leveraged a compromised signing environment (derived from the DevOps laptop breach) to deploy a precision attack using pre-signed EIP-7702 authorizations:

• The Delegation Pivot: The attackers had prepared 50 pre-signed authorization payloads in advance. They submitted a transaction that forced a primary Binance hot wallet to point its code slot to an attacker-controlled sweeper contract.

• Turning the Wallet Against Itself: Because EIP-7702 allows delegated code to execute using the wallet's own authority and storage permissions, the moment the delegation was active, the Binance hot wallet became its own robber.

• The Automated "Sweeper" Loop: The malicious code hard-coded a specific operator address and contained a sweep() function. When triggered, it instantly inventoried all token balances (ETH, stablecoins, and altcoins) and executed native transfer and transferFrom calls to push everything out to the hackers' address.

• Perpetual Draining: The scariest part of the EIP-7702 mechanism is its persistence. Because the code was written directly to the account's execution slot, the hackers did not need to re-sign anything. As users or automated systems continued to deposit fresh funds into the Binance hot wallet afterward, the malicious sweeper contract automatically vacuumed up the new arrivals in subsequent automated loops.

In short, EIP-7702 allowed the hackers to transform a standard exchange hot wallet into an automated funnel, bypassing the need for endless manual withdrawal requests and draining hundreds of millions of dollars in mere minutes.

----------------------------------------------

Source

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cPiCcg-eErw

Google Gemini