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Saturday, May 28, 2022

Is The Bear Market Getting Tired?

Is The Bear Market Getting Tired?

Is The Bear Market Getting Tired?

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Last Friday I put out a special report titled, "Market at a Crossroad." To my analysis and the various market measurements that I have been presenting the last few weeks, it was sort of looking very extended to the downside. This is why I brought up the point that it was at a crossroads.

On one extreme, the people that are pushing for more downside are targeting some very low numbers for the S&P 500. Over the weekend, in Barron's, there was mention of 3,000 for a downside in the S&P. There were also more realistic washed-out levels being mentioned in the area of 3,700. Based on the low on Friday, EXACTLY at the 38.2 Fibonacci replacement number of 3,850, this number of 3,700 does not appear too out of the question. In simple math, that is only 3.8% from the 3,850 number. Hardly a big additional drop due to the extreme volatility in individual names since November of 2021. (see chart below)

Now that we have seen the recovery on Friday afternoon, and the action in equities, bonds, and the US Dollar on Monday, we could be getting the bounce that some were hinting at. Tuesday didn’t continue the bounce, but bottoms tend to be a process more than an event.

Bond yields have backed off from recent highs and the US Dollar seems to be saying that the high point in interest rates could have been seen for a bit. The US Dollar kept getting stronger and stronger as rates rose as it was a great hiding spot for foreign currency owners who wanted to get a double whammy of interest on their money and capital appreciation on the exchange rate.

Now, on Monday, the EU said that they were ready to move out above a negative interest rate environment. This means their rates finally rising and as such, pressure on an extended US Dollar trade. It has actually weakened for the last three trading days. Now, three days does not make a trend, but is how one can begin, or end as it may be in the short run. In the chart above, the US Dollar is seen clearly rolling over from its uptrend that has been in place for some time.  Given that a weaker US Dollar is better for pricing our exports, this could be the reason for a jump start in our broad market as it is the first glimpse of something positive on the global trading front. This being said, a softening US Dollar tends to be a headwind for energy and commodities in general, yet they have continued their uptrend. Given that the NASDAQ is down 30% from its highs, and in effect (except for the supply chain) there is nothing wrong with the domestic economy, there is certainly enough ammo for it to make a go to the upside. 

What we recognized last week was that in looking at the consumer, demand has not been the problem. Instead, the big box retailers that declared earnings said simply that they couldn't get what they wanted to be able to fill orders. Margins were being squeezed due to inflation at the commodity level and a higher cost of money in the form of higher interest rates also had an effect. The biggest consumer issue was the price of gasoline and diesel. As I've mentioned many times, fuel represents 20+% of American consumers' budgets. When you increase the cost of gasoline to $7 from $3 less than a year ago, this can really take the wind out of the discretionary spending sails.

As we hold our breath about gas prices not going any higher, I read an article about gas station owners needing to replace the digital readout panels on the gas pump to reflect a double-digit first number on the price! Think about it, when they first programmed the electronics they weren't expecting the first digit to the left of the decimal point to be above one digit! Coming back to the supply chain issue, this is something fixable. Companies want to produce and consumers across the globe want to consume, so as soon as the COVID variant scares diminish, we should be able to restock inventories and get production cycles back on course. 

Given the severity of the pullback we have experienced, I doubt that the recovery will be a straight-up V-bottom, but instead probably some kind of a bounce a sideways action, and then an eventual rally once we get through the normally difficult Midterm election year negativity. Midterm election years can be quite volatile with the average year down 17.1% from peak to trough, so a Bear market during this year isn't out of the ordinary. I have included an updated chart of where we are in the Midterm year so far this year. 

Knowing where we are and what normally occurs helps, but clearly isn't expected to do anything more than rhyme. Knowing this helps put this year's drop of 18.1% in perspective. The good news is a year off those lows, the S&P 500 has gained 32% on average, something most investors would likely take right about now

One additional point that I would like to make is that I understand how the market pullback has been a result of the four gremlins of: 1) inflation, 2) rising interest rates, 3) supply chain issues, and 4) the Russia / Ukraine conflict, but the one thing that keeps me engaged to look for a much higher US Equity market in the future is that US earnings continue to stand out globally. US stocks are trading at more expensive valuations than their international counterparts, as they have been for quite some time. However, the chart below illustrates the continued earnings superiority of the US equity market, which suggests that US outperformance over the past year has been justified. While international stocks have outperformed the US over the past couple of months as the selloff in domestic tech stocks has accelerated, we would expect US equities to lead the rebound on the other side. 

While earnings estimates for US equities have continued to rise in recent months (even though prices have declined), albeit gradually, expectations for international earnings in both developed and emerging markets have been reduced. Stronger earnings growth potential and less impact from the Russia / Ukraine conflict still support our preference for US equities over Europe, which makes up the majority of the developed international markets benchmark. We are watching for more geopolitical stability and a weaker US Dollar to potentially reinvigorate equities. So, 1) the US over international in equities, 2) bonds still in jeopardy in rising interest rates, 3) commodities still leading, and 4) cash paying nothing but providing shelter in a storm. 

In closing, there was enough new information after Friday's and Monday's market action to warrant some level of expectation that possibly a short-term bottom has been put in. However, I want to stress that these are extraordinary times, and going forward I will hopefully not have to write too many more Special Reports. I also understand there is a risk of becoming "the boy who cried bottoms" if I am not careful with the way I contextualize the information I provide while in this correction. Obviously, if one keeps saying "this could be a bottom" all the way down, eventually he will be proven correct. I, therefore, have tried to objectively present a case for a possible bottom whenever I see enough evidence that one could be forming, but also stress that we need to see strong follow-through and the breaking of resistance levels to help confirm any bottom. Likewise, I have always tried to offer a but...... point that would suggest a bottom is not in and lower lows could ensue.

Please remember, I'm not trying to make bold calls, but rather, like a referee, to call ‘em as I see ‘em. Even if we are, indeed, in a prolonged bear market that will ultimately drop to deeper levels, the countertrend rallies can still be explosive and offer opportunities. If we are not at least anticipating a possible upside reversal, it could be very easy to miss when it does happen. This is why, even though some pain has clearly been endured, staying in this market, particularly when US Equities are still the best port in the storm, remains a prudent backdrop to the investment strategy.

Ken South, May 24, 2022

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Source

https://www.tower68.com/blog/is-the-bear-market-getting-tired

Sunday, May 22, 2022

Astrology (Saturn/Uranus Cycle) 1988 – 2032 as it Pertains to the Markets

Astrology (Saturn/Uranus Cycle) 1988 – 2032 as it Pertains to the Markets

(45 year cycle)

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This Saturn/Uranus cycle’s correlation with Finance has had a clear focus – the introduction of Deregulation and the consequences that have flowed from that culminating in the collapse of key banks and many financial institutions and the rescue of others by government and central banks. If this cycle opposition really does correlate with the Credit crunch then it is probable that the issue of how the Finance sector is effectively regulated will not be resolved till after the cycle Three Quarter stage between 2020 and 2023.

The present Saturn/Uranus cycle started recently in February 1988, reaching its outgoing square (+90 degrees) in 1999. The Opposition occurs from 2008 to 2011 and the incoming square (+270 degrees) will be reached in February 2021. (The next cycle will commence in June 2032,) What relationship between intellectual change and the status Quo does this cycle signify ?

What might the cycle mean ?

HOW A NEW MINDSET SWEEPS AWAY ESTABLISHED INSTITUTIONAL STRUCTURES

We have given the generic meaning of this cycle as the ‘Relationship between intellectual change and the Status Quo’. The term ‘Status Quo’ is a short way of saying ‘the established order of things’. ‘Intellectual’ should be taken to refer to reasoning and understanding – to ideas and not to something academic. Whereas the Uranus/Pluto cycle signifies how the structure and methods of intellectual, scientific, technological and aesthetic thought alter in themselves and the Uranus/Neptune cycle signifies how innovative ideas get taken up as ideals by society, the Saturn/Uranus cycle deals with how a new intellectual mindset actually alters or sweeps away established political, economic and institutional and other structures. It is all about ‘ideas in action’ or ’revolutionary ideas’ . We are talking of the emergence of a major new set of societal attitudes or new ideas leading to the break-up of political or socioeconomic structures.

Here we shall be looking at the conjunction for clear indications that new ideas are being born which show signs of changing or sweeping away established political, economic and other institutional structures. Throughout history this conjunction coincides with the overthrow of the establishment, typically governments or ruling parties but as we shall see sometimes even empires.

THE START OF A NEW CYCLE

CONJUNCTION Nov 1986 to Jan 1990, (exact in Feb, June and Oct 1988)

The 1988 Conjunction, allowing for a 10 degree orb, extends from November 30 1986 to  January 3rd 1990. It coincides with one massive change to the established political and economic structure of the world – the collapse of the Soviet Union and the end of the Cold War. It also coincides with other regional events and developments which while not immediately related could be said to have been influenced ultimately by the same new mindset or wave of ideas.

These include the Tiananmen Square massacre in Beijing, China where troops kill 2,000 demonstrators, violent unrest in South Africa leading to a new President F.W. de Klerk lifting a ban on the African National Congress (ANC) and releasing its leader Nelson Mandela, and the exit of Russia from Afghanistan after 8 difficult years. There are also the overthrow of longstanding governments in the Philippines, Haiti, Fiji and Panama.  In all these cases the attempt to overthrow the Status Quo was arguably influenced by the same set of ideas – those pushing a new wave of human rights, democracy and national self determination campaigns. In a sense  the unusual number of peace agreements reached in 1988 between Ethiopia and Somalia, between Chad and Libya, between Egypt and Algeria and between Iran and Iraq could be said to reflect the same drive to allow new ideas to alter the status-quo.

FINANCIAL DEREGULATION – BIG BANG

BIG BANG

The second major correlation is with major shifts or changes to the Status-quo in the structure of institutions at the heart of the world economy. In particular, the 1988 Conjunction comes close to the end October 1986 deregulation of the London Stock Exchange – the so called ‘Big Bang’, which sees the whole established structure of city financial institutions change, and which results in a pay-out of such huge sums of money to partners and traders that the UK property market undergoes a period of wild inflation. A similar deregulatory move culminated in the United States in the same year. Amendments were made to Federal Reserve Regulation Q such that by April 1986 all interest rate ceilings had been eliminated except for the ban on demand deposit interest. The philosophy behind ‘Big Bang’ has much to do with the new economic strategy of ‘globalisation’ that is set to sweep the West. Again here is an idea that alters structures.

ASIAN ‘TIGER’ ECONOMIES

The period also sees the ascendancy of the Asian ‘tiger’ economies – Korea, Malaysia, Thailand, Taiwan and Indonesia, changing the geographical line-up of the established markets. Financial astrologers (such as Langham, Brahy and Jensen cited in Bates & Bowles’s ‘Money and the markets’) have consistently pointed to a correlation between the Saturn/Uranus cycle and economic activity – especially with investment in production. The correlation with the rise and fall of stockmarket prices however has been considered far less marked. Despite this in October 1987, during the period of the Saturn/Uranus conjunction, ‘Black Monday’ occurs – a day on which a massive stock market crash ends a period of marked economic growth and speculation. The effects of this ripple into the following year when the US dollar registers an all time low and when the New York Stock Exchange registers its third largest one day fall ever. Financial collapse on a far greater scale is due to take place precisely at a later stage in this Saturn/Uranus cycle !

DEREGULATION & GLOBALISATION

However it is not part of this book’s plan to examine any complex inter-relation between planetary cycles and stockmarkets or microeconomic conditions. The relationship, if it exists, is far more technical and statistical than this book aims to be or is qualified to cover.  All that can be said is that structural changes in financial institutions as well as changes to the structure of international business play a key part in stockmarket volatility as evident in crashes such as Black Monday. Deregulation of the central money market in London and elsewhere is closely linked to globalisation. As we shall see later deregulation will be inextricably linked to the 2008 global ‘credit crunch’.

 OTHER GEOPOLITICAL CORRELATIONS

There are three other key geopolitical developments between the end of 1986 and the end of 1989  which can be explained as structural changes resulting from a new collective mindset ? The developments are the Tiananmen Square massacre in Beijing, China where troops kill 2,000 demonstrators, violent unrest in South Africa leading to a new President F.W. de Klerk lifting a ban on the African National Congress (ANC) and releasing its leader Nelson Mandela and the exit of Russia from Afghanistan after 8 difficult years.

 CONCLUSION

The key events correlating with this Saturn/Uranus conjunction are therefore the break-up of the Soviet Union and the fall of the Berlin Wall along with the deregulatory changes made to the structure of financial markets that accompany the emergence of globalisation. The suggestion is simple: there is going to be no structural change in society’s major institutions before the year 2032 (when the new cycle starts) that has not in some way got the imprint of these events on it.

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OUTGOING SQUARE July 1998 to June 2001 (exact in July & Nov 1999 and May 2000)

Can we find in the relevant events and developments of 1999 and early 2000 a clear challenge or extension to the wave of ideas driving the overthrow of governments, institutions and practices inhibiting freedom which were seeded at the 1988 Conjunction ? The exact dates of the outgoing square are July and November 1999 and May 2000, but if we allow an orb of 10 degrees the period stretches from July 1998 to June 2001

DOTCOM CRASH

If the second most important development at the 1988 Conjunction was the Deregulation of financial institutions and the expansion of the number of investors, many of whom directly invested online in shares especially of the new technology companies, then the year 2000 certainly sees a major challenge to these developments – the ‘dotcom’ crash of  April 2000. Though deregulation cannot be said to have led directly to the ‘dotcom’ crash, the ethos it inspired and the practices it encouraged certainly did. It is doubtful whether financial institutions would have piled into the ‘dotcom’ sector to the degree they did without the intensely competitive forces engendered by deregulation. It should be remembered that the 1988 conjunction also coincided with the ‘Black Monday’ stock market crash of October 1987. But the difference between the ‘Black Monday’ crash and the ‘Dotcom’ crash is important. The former was the result of a mixture of market forces, the latter was primarily the result of a combination of structural changes – in regulation, in the communications industry and in the investment community itself. And it is ‘Structural changes’ we are concerned with in this cycle.

ECONOMIC COLLAPSE THROUGHOUT ASIA

At the 1988 cycle conjunction we saw the rise of the Asian ‘tiger economies’ now in the years 1999 and 2000 we see an economic collapse throughout Asia as currency, share and property values plummet. The year had started with Japan reporting the most severe financial downturn in its post-war history. Then in April 1999, at the beginning of the Out square, China’s first major financial bankruptcy occurs as GITIC (Guangdong International Trust & Investment Corp) collapses with debts of US$4.5 billion – over the year China’s economy continues to deteriorate. In August the Ministry of Finance concedes that China is in recession with serious urban unemployment. In July 1999 Daewoo, South Korea’s second largest conglomerate, teeters on the brink of bankruptcy as management announces the corporation cannot meet the interest payments on its debt of a staggering $57 billion. Although in July 2000, as the Out square begins to move out of orb, it is generally concluded that the Asian economies had recovered from the crisis of 1998, the year 2000 sees economic stagnation continue in Japan. However the correlation is with emergent Asian economies and not the leading Far East economy.

 CONCLUSION

The key developments at the Out square are twofold: first the appalling brutality in Chechnya and genocide in Kosovo is a severe challenge to the democratic and human rights optimism that accompanied the collapse of the Soviet Union and the end of the Cold War; second the challenge of the ‘dotcom’ crash to the forces unleashed by deregulation. Will the cycle opposition stage see some kind of maximisation of these developments ?

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OPPOSITION Oct 2007 to Aug 2011 (exact in Nov 2008, Feb & Sept 2009, April & July 2010)

What developments might we expect to see at the Opposition in 2008, 2009 and 2010 when the contemporary movement for democracy and human rights together with the more deregulated investment scene should both reach a point of maximum fruition but where inherent contradictions may surface ?

The Opposition first comes into orb in mid October 2007 and stays in orb, with several short exit periods, through 2008, 2009 and 2010 up till August 2011.

FINANCE – THE CREDIT CRUNCH

TOXIC ‘SUB-PRIME’ LOANS

Only 5 days after the Saturn/Uranus Cycle Opposition first comes into orb on Oct 19 2007 Merrill Lynch reports its first quarterly loss in six years of $8.4 billion  – on structured investment mortgage loans. In the days that follow Switzerland’s largest bank UBS, Japanese megabank Mitsubishi UFJ and Citigroup report similarly drastic losses on US ‘subprime’ loans. This kind of lending means making loans to people who may have difficulty maintaining the repayment schedule. These loans are characterized by higher interest rates, poor quality collateral and less favourable terms – in order to compensate for the higher credit risk. The losses are the first sign that many of such loans on major banks books are toxic – incapable of repayment.

That the message has not reached regulators is reflected by the Europe MiFID deregulatory directive issued on Nov 1 dropping some key rules on trading equities. On Nov 7 and Nov 20 Morgan Stanley and Freddie Mac, America’s largest buyer of home loans both report billion dollar losses from the same cause. On Dec 10 UBS says it will write off a further $10 billion of subprime losses. On Dec 20 Bear Stearns reports its first loss in its 84 year history. As the year ends the US Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank battle to shore up the money markets. In January 2008 Credit Suisse and Countrywide, the US’s largest mortgage lender, are hit by subprime losses while Citigroup and Merrill Lynch report historically unprecedented quarterly losses of $9.8 billion and $16 billion. On Feb 3 the cycle opposition goes temporarily out of orb.

In the seven months the cycle opposition stays out of orb what takes place in the banking markets is simply a consequence of what has already happened – a couple of further loss announcements, the injection by central banks of huge sums, the rescue by JP Morgan of US investment giant Bear Stearns and in Britain the nationalisation of mortgage lender Northern Rock.

BANKING TITAN LEHMAN BROTHERS GOES BANKRUPT

On August 29 the day the cycle opposition comes back into orb Integrity Bancshares becomes the tenth US bank to fail in 2008. But the full force of the returning cycle opposition explodes very shortly after on September 15 when the 158 year old banking titan Lehman Brothers, burdened by $60 billion in soured real-estate holdings, files for bankruptcy. It is the largest corporate failure in the history of the United States ! The markets go into terminal panic while the central banks desperately pump in billions of euros, pounds and in the case of the US Federal Reserve 70 billion dollars and a similar size loan to insurance giant AIG. By September 18 central banks around the world have poured in $180 billion to reassure the markets. The Russian government and the Bank of England together inject similar massive sums.While part of Lehman Bros is sold off, the other major US investment banks Morgan Stanley and Goldman Sachs defensively change their banking status.

CENTRAL BANKS INJECT $620 BILLION

On Sept 29 the US Federal Reserve with the help of the European Central Bank (ECB), the Bank of England and the Bank of Japan agree to lend banks a further $620 billion ! On October 1 2008 the US Congress signs off a $700 billion bailout of the financial industry. On Oct 8 six central banks cut interest rates together in an attempt to shore up confidence in the world’s crisis-stricken financial system with the US Federal Reserve reducing its key rate to 1.5%. On that day the International Monetary Fund (IMF) says the world economy is entering a major downturn. At the same time Iceland is obliged to take over the third largest of its banks while it negotiates a E4.5 billion loan from Russia. On Oct 10 as stocks crash to five year lows the Dow Jones index (DJIA) has its most volatile day ever and the London stock market plunges 10%. On Oct 13 as the central banks pump in further massive sums Wall Street rebounds in the biggest stock market rally since the Great Depression ! The EU/ECB alone puts $2.3 trillion on the line to protect its banks.

However on October 22 the DJIA tumbles 514.45 points – its 7th biggest point drop in history, as investors fear these moves will not prevent the global economy going into deep recession. The next day former Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan calls the current financial crisis a “once-in-a-century credit tsunami”. However on Oct 28 the DJIA rises 889 points, the 2nd biggest gain in its history. In December as the crisis spreads beyond banking the US administration is obliged to approve an emergency bailout of the US auto industry, offering $17.4 billion in rescue loans. The following month the UK Government will announce a similar measure. On January 1 2009 the Bank of America purchases investment giant Merrill Lynch to save it from bankruptcy. In February the US Treasury pushes out the boat further announcing a stimulus package that could amount to as much as $2.5 trillion.

UK’S ROYAL BANK OF SCOTLAND REPORTS £24.1 BILLION LOSS

In Europe a week later the Bank of England cuts interest rates to 1.5% – the lowest level since its founding in 1694 – it will fall a couple of months later to 0.5% and stay there. On Jan 14 2009 shares in Germany’s biggest bank Deutsche Bank slump as it posts massive losses. On Feb 13 the British Lloyds Banking group, already 43% state owned, announces a £10 billion loss at HBOS, a bank it had taken over four months earlier. But on Feb 13 the Royal Bank of Scotland reports a massive £24.1 billion loss – the largest in British corporate history – partly because of its mis-timed takeover of Dutch bank ABN Amro. In early March Eastern Europe’s struggling banks get a $31 billion loan. In April 2009 as the IMF forecasts losses from the credit crunch could reach $4 trillion, the Saturn/Uranus opposition goes briefly out of orb – till July 1st. During this gap there are no significant money market events.

BY 2009 GLOBAL CREDIT CRUNCH HAS COST $10 TRILLION

On 31 July 2009 the IMF states that the global credit crunch has cost governments more than $10 trillion. However in August France,  Germany and Japan emerge from recession and in September some 27 central banks back new measures to strengthen supervision of the global banking industry – confirmed by the G20 summit on the 26th. On 15 October 2009 the DJIA index breaks through the 10,000 mark – the first time in a year. On Nov 13 the Eurozone economy emerges from recession. On Nov 19 the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) says growth and recovery are expected in 2010 in just about all world regions. On Nov 27, as the Saturn/Uranus opposition goes out of orb again, US shares fall on worries about Dubai’s debt problems – accentuated by the refusal of the Dubai government to guarantee the debt. For bank debt is now no longer the key issue – the key issue is government debt – not least in the Eurozone area.

Read the book to see how the Eurozone crisis correlates closely with the remaining part of the Saturn/Uranus cycle Out square

This Saturn/Uranus cycle’s correlation with Finance has had a clear focus – the introduction of Deregulation and the consequences that have flowed from that culminating in the collapse of key banks and many financial institutions and the rescue of others by government and central banks. If this cycle opposition really does correlate with the Credit crunch then the health of the banking sector is unlikely to improve till the end of 2016 when the cycle reaches the unchallenging 240 degree stage. However it is probable that the issue of how the Finance sector is effectively regulated will not be resolved till the cycle In Square between 2020 and 2023.

The Saturn/Uranus incoming square came into orb on Jan 11 2020 and will last  until 21 November 2023. The exact hits are in February, June and December 2021. Among the issues that have been correlated with this cycle since 1988 that of Financial Regulation and associated Finance market crises now appears top of the list. Between July and November 2020 any imminent eruption of  a market  crisis or regulatory move remains hidden but in November when the end of the global COVID-19 pandemic is in sight the result of the huge cessation of business and employment for so long is likely to ally with the increasing issue of government debt to lead to an upheaval in this area. Major Upheavals in Russia and China and possibly South Africa and Afghanistan may also be anticipated

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Source

http://cyclesofhistory.com/


Wednesday, May 18, 2022

Buying the Apocalypse

 Buying the Apocalypse


Remember the Speculator’s Edge…to demand supply and supply demand. Doing your job as a speculator sometimes requires buying when there’s blood in the streets or under other circumstances when all but the bravest are selling. Indeed, the best trade (investment) imaginable would be buying stocks at the Apocalypse. You’d get them while their worth less than their intrinsic value (value of future cash flows discounted back to the present). The discount rate is the yield on the ten year bill (the risk-free rate) which is now under one percent…Therefore those future cash flows will be discounted by very little...In other words think long term where there is less competition for the information that really matters. And remember at times of emotional extremes, be contrary. Don't be part of the herd...stand apart!

A few reassuring words from Bruce Flatt from his latest letter to the shareholders…

While we manage our underlying business for the long term, we realize that you are also interested in our stock performance. Its 50% increase in 2019 was an anomaly; at the same time, the previous year the share price was down, which we also viewed as an anomaly. We estimate that we earned approximately 20% annual returns on our intrinsic value over the two years. As a result, over the two years combined, our stock had a return that was about the same as what we generated in the business.

In short what is now happening in the stock market is an anomaly. The run-up up to the current sell-off was an anomaly…Focus on long term values…hold your nose and buy or just hold on to what what you have. Stocks that have a history of raising their dividends will beat the hell out of the returns one can get from putting his money into the ten year bill where your return will be currently less than three percent for the next ten years...think about it.

Monday, May 16, 2022

Topaz Energy (TPZ)

Topaz Energy (TPZ)

Topaz Energy (TPZ) 

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Chairman Mike Rose at natural gas tilted Topaz Energy (TPZ) spent just over $250,000 buying shares last week. Topaz uses a royalty model with oil & gas assets from southwestern Manitoba to northeastern BC, which generally include non-operated royalty interests in exploration & production assets as well as stakes in natural gas infrastructure. Topaz's average royalty production in Q1 2022 was 16,122 barrels of oil equivalent a day (78% natural gas) versus 11,743 boe/d (92% natural gas) a year earlier. On a dollar basis, however, liquids represented 50.6% of the $65.7 million in Q1 production revenue. Processing revenue accounted for $13.1 million in Q1, up from $10.5 million a year earlier. Topaz has royalties on about 5.8 million gross acres, over half of which are undeveloped. If the energy bull market continues, Topaz appears to have plenty of open seas ahead.

On May 9th, Topaz Energy (TPZ) Board Chairman Mike Rose bought 10,000 shares at $23.31 in the public market. He no holds 433,470 shares representing 0.3% of all shares outstanding. Mr. Rose also bought 20,000 shares of Tourmaline Oil (TOU) last week where he is CEO. Topaz Energy currently holds a sunny INK Edge outlook on the equally weighted V.I.P. criteria of valuations, insider commitment, and price momentum which places it in the top 10% of all stocks ranked. INK outlook categories are designed to identify groups of stocks that have the potential to out or underperform the market. However, any individual stock could surprise on the up or downside. As such, outlook categories are not meant to be stock-specific recommendations. For background on our INK Edge outlook, please visit our FAQ #3 at inkresearch.com.

Watch today's INK daily preview video at:

https://www.inkresearch.com/ultramoney/MayWhales

or via the Vivaville Discord channel:

https://discord.gg/Mn4dgVsxCt

where you can join the conversation.

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Sunday, May 15, 2022

BAM - Q1 2022 Letter to Shareholders

Brookfield Asset Management

BAM - Q1 2022 Letter to Shareholders

Overview

We had an excellent quarter and were active on many fronts. Cash flows and earnings were strong, and we closed on a number of acquisitions. We continue to see the impacts from Covid diminishing and we have had no major disruptions resulting from the various current macroeconomic issues. And while macro challenges are always of concern, time has shown us that the best option for long-term investors is to stay the course—owning great businesses for long periods of time is the key to wealth creation.

The main focus in the investment world today is on determining where capital is best invested. On the one hand, buying fixed income with duration offers some return but a lot of risk—and staying in short-duration bonds offers low risk but generates little yield. On the other hand, however, real assets and real businesses offer the opportunity for investors to ride out markets while the businesses continue to generate cash and compound in value. Moreover, many of these real assets and businesses offer significant inflation protection as the world adjusts.

We expect by year end to make a special distribution, on a tax-free basis to most shareholders, in the form of 25% of the shares of our Asset Management business. We believe, like other distributions we have made, that separating this entity will be a very strategic transaction in the longer term for our business.

The Market Environment Had Lots of Volatility

Global central banks are raising rates and pulling back on stimulus. The 10-year bond in the U.S. now sits at 3%, which represents more than a 1% increase from the start of the year. While large in percentages, it is important to remember that by historical standards, interest rates continue to remain very low—and therefore constructive for businesses.

The overriding worries today are about inflation and its effect on the economy, and central bank interest rates. The good news is that the underlying investments we own are very resilient in an inflationary environment and continue to provide a compelling alternative to traditional investments. We don’t own the super high growth speculative technology related businesses which have been reevaluated in these markets.

Capital markets have tightened but remain open, and liquidity is available for good businesses. Labor markets continue to trend positively, with unemployment rates in most major economies recovering to near, or better than, pre-pandemic levels. The U.S. labor market is, by some measures, the strongest it has been in decades.

Financial Results Were Strong

Distributable earnings before realizations were $947 million in the quarter and $3.7 billion over the last 12 months. This is approximately 30% greater than the comparable periods. Fee-related earnings and distributions from principal investments continue to grow significantly as a result of strong fundraising, new products and strong operating results across our businesses. Total Distributable Earnings were $1.2 billion in the quarter.

Our underlying operations continue to perform well, supporting stable and growing cash distributions. We received distributions from principal investments of $622 million in the quarter and $2.3 billion over the past year, representing 27% and 19% increases over the comparative periods.

AS AT AND FOR THE 12 MONTHS ENDED 
 MAR 31 ($US MILLIONS, EXCEPT PER SHARE AMOUNTS)

2018

2019

2020

2021

2022

CAGR

Distributable Earnings 

 

 

 

 

 

 

                                    – Total 

$    2,294

$    2,444

$    2,659

$    6,113

$    4,957

21%

                                    – Per share

$      1.56

$      1.67

$      1.77

$      3.97

$      3.09

19%

                                    – Before realizations

2,155

2,119

2,225

2,872

3,674

14%

Gross annual run rate of fees plus target carry

2,465

3,100

5,561

6,637

7,969

34%

Total assets under management

282,731

365,957

518,956

609,075

720,161

26%

In the current economic environment, real assets continue to be the place to invest. We closed our latest credit opportunities fund at $16 billion and will shortly close our $15 billion global transition fund. Our real estate fund has raised $12 billion to date and will be closed out by year end, and our perpetual private infrastructure and real estate funds have raised a total of $5 billion since the start of the year. We launched our fifth flagship infrastructure fund and our sixth flagship private equity fund, both expected to have first closes in the near term. We launched fundraising for both our third infrastructure debt fund and our third growth equity fund, and our non-traded REIT is now approved on numerous distribution platforms, and we expect to see inflows ramp up throughout 2022 and beyond.

With the public market volatility in the quarter, we were very successful in closing a number of public market bids with companies. We acquired or are in the process of acquiring three public property companies—in Ireland, Belgium and Germany, totaling an investment of about $3 billion of equity. We acquired one and are acquiring two other infrastructure businesses in Australia for $8 billion. Our private equity business acquired two listed entities, one private entity and one carve-out transaction. This included a $4 billion software and technology services company that provides backbone technology for car dealerships globally; a 50% interest in an iconic information services business; a non-bank asset manager in Australia; and a payment services provider in the UAE.

On the other hand, private markets remain robust for the sale of assets that generate cash returns and have a form of inflation protection. We agreed to sell two office complexes in Melbourne and Sydney for $2 billion and $1 billion, respectively—well above IFRS values and at the tightest cap rates we have ever sold properties in Australia. In London, we are in the process of selling an office property for over £300 million for just under a 4% cap rate – market setting; and we are progressing sales processes across other properties as well.

Our Asset Management Business Will be Listed and 25% Distributed to Shareholders

In our year-end letter, we mentioned that we were considering publicly listing a partial interest in our asset management organization. We have been very encouraged by the feedback we received from shareholders and concluded that publicly listing a 25% interest in our asset management business will be overwhelmingly positive. We expect that these shares can be distributed to shareholders before year end. The special distribution of shares of the Manager, based on our estimate of Value1, will be around $20 billion or approximately $12.00 for each share of Brookfield you own at that time. The distribution will be executed on a tax-free basis to Canadian and U.S. shareholders and we are working through the taxation in other jurisdictions.

As you may know, Brookfield’s history dates back to the establishment of its predecessor company in 1899 for the purpose of providing electricity and transportation services. The company evolved throughout the 20th century and underwent a number of name changes. In the 1970s, the company shifted its investment focus to real estate, financial services, hydroelectric power and industrial investments. Thus, our roots are in the direct ownership and operation of businesses, sometimes in partnership with others but mostly for our own account. It may surprise some of today’s shareholders to learn that we didn’t begin to provide asset management services to third parties, in a meaningful way, until the late 1990s.

Over the more than 20 years since then, our expertise in investing our own capital has greatly benefitted our asset management clients, and the asset management business has expanded rapidly. The investment sectors we focus on—renewable power & transition, infrastructure, private equity, real estate, credit and insurance solutions—which have turned out to be prime components of what is now known as the “alternative investment” industry, are very much in demand. We have emphasized achieving superior returns on our clients’ investments and Brookfield’s investments alongside those clients, and we have developed dedicated, expert management in each of the sectors.

Thus, Brookfield has made a lot of money investing on its own balance sheet, to the point where Brookfield now has proprietary assets representing approximately $75 billion of invested capital, and our asset management organization has taken its place as one of the very top alternative investment firms.

The combination of our top-tier alternative asset management organization with our very significant invested capital makes us unique among our peers and has represented a significant competitive advantage to us in building our business. This combination leverages our significant operating expertise across all our businesses, it further aligns our interests with the investors in our funds, and it means we can move rapidly to seize new opportunities. The bottom line is that today’s Brookfield consists of two businesses that are very different in nature but work together very well.

Looking forward, we believe that each of these businesses has incredible potential to expand further. To achieve this growth, however, we have concluded that they should now be separated, while preserving the benefits of their complementary nature and alignment.

We have seen the benefits that can be derived from this type of separation of businesses. Over close to 15 years, we have methodically launched our renewables, infrastructure, real estate and private equity platforms into separately managed businesses. We attribute their outstanding success in no small part to them having strong, dedicated, decentralized management teams whose efforts are concentrated on their respective businesses. This experience gives us great confidence that implementing operational separation between our asset manager and the capital investor will provide each business a platform and focus to deliver on its growth plan.

Moreover, if we are successful in our objective, creating a “pure-play” asset manager should also expand our investor base. Today, some potential investors interested in our asset management business may be put off by the need to also understand and value our proprietary investments (or they may avoid making this effort by taking our proprietary assets into account at a severe discount). Having a new security or “currency” that is well understood and appreciated by the public markets will maximize optionality for us as we continue to scale and diversify our asset management platform.

Here’s how we think about this: for now, we will refer to the capital investor of our proprietary assets as the “Corporation” and our asset management entity as the “Manager”:

Corporation Manager

Manager

As a first step, the Corporation will publicly distribute a 25% interest in the Manager to our shareholders. This will make the Manager a pure play in money management and one of the clear leaders in alternatives. The Manager’s balance sheet will be free of the substantial proprietary investments the Corporation makes for its own account, facilitating comparison of its financial statements with those of other asset managers, and its performance as a pure money manager will be clear. Since asset managers don’t need much in the way of facilities, equipment or working capital to do business, we plan for the Manager to pay out approximately 90% of its annual earnings in dividends. At our midpoint of valuation estimates, the Manager will in our view have a Value of ±$80 billion (“trading price” may be more or less) and based on that will have a free float of ±$20 billion.

The Corporation will initially hold a 75% ownership of the Manager. In addition to the shares of the Manager and our other proprietary investments, the Corporation will own its existing interest in Brookfield Reinsurance, the most recent example of a company we have built by investing our own funds. In essence, following the transaction, the Corporation (at our midpoint valuation estimates) will hold ±$135 billion of investments: the ±$75 billion of investments it currently owns plus ±$60 billion of Manager shares—its 75% ownership in the Manager. Shareholders will directly own the other 25% of the Manager.

The Corporation is also the entity that will continue to make early investment commitments to funds managed by the Manager, make direct investments in new and existing businesses, or repurchase shares when they represent the best potential use of funds. The Corporation’s objective will be to continue investing and compounding capital over the long term at an annualized rate in excess of 15%, consistent with our historical returns. The Corporation’s appetite for investment capital means, however, that its annual dividend will initially be set at a lower level (which, when combined with the dividends shareholders will receive from the high payout of the Manager, will be around the same as they receive today).

The result of this transaction will be two companies: a leading alternative asset management firm and a capital investor focused on compounding its capital over time, each of which has its own financial dynamics and each of which will be easier to analyze when viewed from the outside. However, through their common ownership and the fact that the Manager will manage many of the Corporation’s investments, we will preserve the extensive synergies that historically have existed between our asset management and proprietary capital investing functions. These include the sharing of industry expertise; accessing the operating expertise across our platforms; joint sourcing of deals; and the capital investor’s use of its strong balance sheet to invest alongside the asset manager, enabling our combined entities to complete large-scale transactions.

We think this is the best of both worlds: separate identities for our two distinct businesses, but preservation of their ability to benefit each other, and thus all shareholders. Separated from “asset-heavy” investments, we think the performance of the Manager as an investment manager will become even more visible, and therefore be more appealing to investors desirous of a pure-play investment in the alternatives industry. On the other hand, shareholders who wish to retain exposure to the capital investment function may favor the Corporation. Of course, any shareholder who likes things exactly the way they’ve been will be able to hold both shares side-by-side and have just that.

We hope you will share our enthusiasm for this transaction, and we look forward to having you with us in the Corporation and/or the Manager, in whatever combination you find most attractive. As we move forward, we look forward to providing you with further updates as we finalize the details of the transaction.

Lastly, as to the fundamental mechanics of the transaction, we expect them to be as follows:

Inflation Is Very Positive for Real Assets and Businesses

We own and manage one of the largest portfolios of cash generating inflation-protected assets in the world.

In general, we own assets and businesses that require large investment up front, earn very high margins, and generally have low expenses compared with their capital cost. As a result, the impact of inflation is on our expenses, which represent approximately 30-40% of revenues. But correspondingly, we benefit from expansion on 100% of revenues. Therefore, as inflation occurs, margins increase—which means that inflation has a positive impact for owners of real assets and real return businesses. With approximately $725 billion of assets of this nature and prices up 10-20%, the value of our overall investment portfolio increases and the compounding effect over time is even more meaningful.

As an example, last year we acquired a number of utility assets in our super core infrastructure strategy, which is a fixed income alternative for our clients. These utility assets are long-dated and low risk, mostly contracted or regulated, so the risk of disruption of income is minimal. That said, our upside is capped within a reasonable band. Last year, with a view that odds favored more inflation rather than less, we acquired many assets that are regulated/contracted, with the expectation of inflation increases in the portfolio greater than the 2% assumed in the purchase prices.

These acquisitions included part of an electricity transmission line in the U.S., part of a natural gas delivery system in the U.K., and numerous electricity transmission and distributions systems in Australia. Our expectation at acquisition was an all-in 9% return on these assets, and we started with an average of 5% current yield. Fast forward to today, with inflation running at 5% plus, the cash flows dropping to the bottom line will be higher—and the compounding effect in the future even greater. This is because both the overall revenues are higher, and the benefits are amplified when one has fixed-rate financial leverage.

In real estate, we estimate that in the last three years, prices for construction materials are up at least 20%—and even more in some parts of the world. This number is based on the knowledge in our construction and development businesses, and as we price the construction of buildings daily. The ramification of this is that to build a new building, the costs will be over 20% higher than three years ago. As a result, and keeping returns equal, rental rates to start a new building need to be at least 20% higher. This means that upon vacancies getting utilized, rents are going higher. Our experience today in New York is that for quality office buildings, rents have increased more than 30% from pre-pandemic levels.

The Country Matters – It Always Has

Given recent events, and as global investors, it is worth revisiting our views on global markets, and where we will invest. As many of you will recall, we are very global, but very choosy. We invest in 30 or so countries, but we are very methodical about where and how we invest. This process always matters, and while sometimes it is tempting to be lured into a situation, one only finds out the ramifications when it is too late. Recent events have only emphasized this point.

Before we describe our process, we would like to emphasize that we have no Brookfield business in Russia. We have no people, and we have no direct exposures. Of course, given the scale of our business, we have some de minimis indirect exposure to businesses that had dealings in Russia, but they are essentially inconsequential.

Most importantly, this is not by accident. It was, and is, the direct result of the rigorous process we go through before entering a country and deciding that we will invest the time, energy and resources to be there for the long term. Once the decision is made, it is difficult to stop the train from moving forward.

Our rules are quite simple, but they require rigorous discipline to adhere to them. Over the years, we have been approached to do business in most countries. Often the transactions in themselves look very appealing. Each time we ponder and consider investing, but we try to always adhere to our principles. The last few months have provided us all a very good reminder as to why we have our rules.

As a refresher, our rules are:

We are in over 30 countries that fit these criteria, and there are not many others that we need to be in—or that we want to be in. For example, there are some great small countries we do not operate in; it is simply that they are too small for us. In others, we don’t feel confident that we can operate with our standards.

As you know, we buy long-term assets and businesses that generate reasonable cash flows that grow over time. If we look after and enhance the assets, they tend to grow in value over the longer term. If there is any chance that we might not get our value back at the end, or that the value could otherwise be impaired by things other than regular business risk, the country does not fit our investment criteria.

The world is a big place and we do not need to be everywhere. In fact, concentrating our efforts often has ancillary benefits, so we don’t ever plan to be everywhere. There are so many great opportunities around the world for a franchise like ours and it is exciting to be at the center of them.

Closing

We remain committed to being a world-class asset manager, and to investing capital for you and the rest of our investment partners in high-quality assets that earn solid cash returns on equity, while emphasizing downside protection for the capital employed. The primary objective of the company continues to be to generate increasing cash flows on a per-share basis, and as a result, higher intrinsic value per share over the longer term.

And do not hesitate to contact any of us should you have suggestions, questions, comments or ideas you wish to share.

Sincerely,

Bruce Flatt
Chief Executive Officer
May 12, 2022