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Thursday, March 28, 2024

Stephen Takacsy's Top Picks: March 28, 2024

Stephen Takacsy's Top Picks: March 28, 2024

Stephen Takacsy, president, CEO and CIO, Lester Asset Management

FOCUS: Canadian stocks 


MARKET OUTLOOK:

We continue to see a positive environment for stocks and bonds in 2024. We always believed inflation was “transitory” caused by global supply chain disruptions from the pandemic. Core inflation has since declined naturally to nearly two per cent as supply chains have normalized, not because of the rapid interest rate hikes by central banks. In fact, rate hikes contribute to inflation through a huge increase in shelter costs, particularly in Canada where there’s been massive immigration combined with a housing shortage. This is why central banks pivoted last fall and bonds rallied, with stocks following suit. The North American economy has been resilient despite higher rates and the job market remains strong with savings rates still high. So, we may be entering a “goldilocks” scenario where disinflation or even deflation occurs, allowing for rate cuts along with a still-growing economy. If the economy weakens too much, this will still be seen as good news because rate cuts would be even more aggressive.

While the bond market has fallen this year because of delayed rate cuts, we continue to invest in high-yielding short-term corporate bonds, which still trade at very attractive yields in the six to seven per cent range representing equity-like returns with very low risk. In Canadian equities, we are adding to our small/mid-cap stocks many of which are still very cheap as institutional flows out of Canada and retail fund redemptions decimated them over the past few years. Private equity firms have taken notice and have been acquiring Canadian companies at big premiums. Other bargains abound in large cap high dividend yielding sectors like telecom and energy infrastructure (Enbridge yields 7.6 per cent), and stocks in the beaten up renewable energy sector, like Boralex and Northland Power.

Stephen Takacsy's Top Picks

Stephen Takacsy, president, CEO and chief investment officer at Lester Asset Management, discusses his top picks: Pet Valu, MDA, and Boralex.

PET VALU (PET TSX)

Pet Valu is Canada’s largest specialty retailer of pet supplies with over 780 mostly franchised stores and 18 per cent share of the market. Industry growth has been driven by increased pet adoption rates and higher spending per pet because of the humanization and premiumization of pets. Pet Valu generates 22 per cent EBITDA (earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization) margins and strong free cash flow which they have been reinvesting into opening new stores and raising the dividend. Pet Valu has consistently beaten consensus and delivered double-digit organic growth since its IPO (initial public offer) in 2021. However, SSS (same-store sales) growth has slowed down after the post-pandemic boom and the stock has corrected from $42 to $32 creating a good buying opportunity.

The company is spending on three new state-of-the-art distribution centers in the Greater Toronto Area, Calgary, and Vancouver, which should help improve margins, and plan on opening 40 to 50 new stores per year, so strong organic growth. The stock is now trading at around 19 times 2024 price-to-earnings (versus 30 times before) which is very attractive considering double-digit EPS (earnings per share) growth should resume in 2025.

MDA (MDA TSX)

Is the old McDonald Detwiller and is the only pure-play space technology company in the world and a global leader in its field. Since the cost of launching satellites has plummeted over the past decade, there is now a whole new “space economy” developing around satellite-based telecommunication, earth observation data, and other space infrastructure, for which MDA is really well positioned. They are in three business segments: geo-intelligence, robotics, and satellite systems. MDA currently has a $3.1 billion backlog providing clear visibility for 20 per cent to 25 per cent EBITDA growth per year over the next three years.

This is driven by a $2 billion contract for Telesat’s Lightspeed broadband LEO constellation of 198 satellites expected to be financed by the Canadian government any week now. This is also driven by several other LEO (low earth orbit) constellations such as Apple’s Globalstar emergency connection and another as yet unnamed smartphone provider, possibly Google or Samsung. MDA has a technological lead over competitor having developed digital satellites which are more efficient and configurable, thus lowering operating costs for their customer. MDA was recently added to the TSX Composite Index yet is still a relatively unknown stock trading at under nine times 2024 EBITDA which is very cheap given its massive growth potential.

BORALEX (BLX TSX)

It is one of Canada’s leading renewable energy producers with a strong presence in Quebec, the U.S. and France. The company has long-term contracted power production agreements mostly in wind and solar. Boralex recently announced record results with 22 per cent growth in EBITDA and strong free cash flow generation. The company has a large pipeline of wind, solar, and storage projects, which in total are expected to more than double BLX’s production capacity over the next few years.

Valuations of IPPs have crashed over the past two years due to rising interest rates, project cost increases, funding needs, and in some cases dividend cuts. Boralex is well-financed and has a low payout ratio. Under $30 is a great entry point to buy the stock at a historically low multiple of around 9.5 times EBITDA, for a company that has a high-quality asset base, a robust pipeline of projects, and multi-decade tailwinds for growth. 


Stephen Takacsy's Past Picks

HIGH LINER FOODS (HLF TSX)

#1 supplier to retail channel in Canada, and #1 in US to food services. Sells under own name and private label. Seafood consumption low in NA, huge potential for growth. Revenue growth stalled with consumers cutting back on higher-priced items. In rally mode again. Huge free cashflow, buying back lots of shares, increased divvie by 30%, paying down debt. Dirt cheap at 8x PE. Insiders own 40%. Feels it will be sold down the road.

  • Then: $14.94
  • Now: $13.27
  • Return: -11%
  • Total Return: -7%

LOGISTEC (LGT.B TSX)

It is in the marine cargo handling business with over 60 ports in North America. It recently made a very big acquisition which gives it a very strong position in the Great Lakes area. Has had record results of $4 per share and trades at10X P/E. They have owned it for many years and it hasn't been this cheap in a long time. The other side of the business is in environmental services including soil/water remediation and water pipe repairs - they have a record backlog. 

Acquired by private equity. Likes the environmental space so much they parlayed proceeds into Canada's first Global Biodiversity Fund, comprised of about 40 stocks.

  • Then: $43.99
  • Now: $66.95
  • Return: 52%
  • Total Return: 53%

DEFINITY FINANCIAL (DFY TSX)

Very strong results recently. Premiums more than covered expenses. Raised dividend by 16%. Now allowed to lever balance sheet to make acquisitions. Growing faster than IFC, which is #1 in Canada. Trades at big discount (1.8x book value) to IFC (2.8x). Really good upside. 

Swiss Reinsurance just purchased 10% of company. Possible creeping takeover? DFY is either going to make acquisitions or be acquired. Good time to buy.

  • Then: $34.77
  • Now: $44.15
  • Return: 27%
  • Total Return: 29%

Total Return Average: 25%

Honorable Mention (Strong Buy)

Quarterhill Inc. (QTRH-T)

One of his biggest positions. Fantastic board, much-improved management team with wonderful expertise in a great space. Focused on driving shareholder value. Huge backlog. Should see improved margins. Insiders buying a lot of stock.

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Source

https://www.bnnbloomberg.ca/stephen-takacsy-s-top-picks-march-28-2024-1.2052989

https://stockchase.com/company/view/4762/LGTB-T


Tuesday, March 26, 2024

Highest Yielding Dividend Aristocrats To Buy Today

Highest Yielding Dividend Aristocrats To Buy Today


Dividend Aristocrats—S&P 500 companies that have consecutively increased dividends for 25 years or more—are excellent choices for consistent and reliable payouts. Companies in this prestigious group are favorites of income investors and those building their retirement nest eggs. 

Today, the S&P 500 Aristocrat index currently includes 67 companies, and to be perfectly honest, few of us have the time to go through the entire list to find out which ones pay the highest dividends. Thankfully, there are tools that investors can use to make the search easier. Even better, you have me to list the top three Aristocrats with the highest yields. So, let’s get to it. 

How I Screen For High-Yield Dividend Aristocrats

Barchart offers many features and functionality (most of them free) that can be used to take the pain out of stock selection. I used a previously prepared Dividend Aristocrats watch list for this selection and organized them by the highest yields using the stock screener. 

To screen for the highest-yielding Dividend Aristocrats, I begin by logging into Barchart.com and clicking “Watchlist” at the top of the website. Then, I select Aristocrats from the watchlist dropdown and click the “Div Yield” field to sort by dividend yield.

If you don't already have an Aristocrats watchlist, click “New Watchlist” and then add the symbols. You're also able to add several other filters to refine searches further. But I understand that people are busy, so let’s list the three Dividend Aristocrats with the highest yields, starting with number one: 

Amcor (AMCR)

First on our list of high-yielding Dividend Aristocrats is Amcor. This company specializes in flexible and rigid plastic packaging sold in EMEA and the Asia Pacific. The company’s global packaging solution has generated over $14.7 billion in sales, with over 218 production and distribution sites worldwide. Amcor provides packaging for various industries, including food and beverage, pharmaceuticals, and personal care. 

Amcor currently pays a $0.125 quarterly dividend or 50-cent forward annual rate, representing a 5.38% yield for AMCR stock based on its last trading price. This attractive yield is further compounded by a 104.17% 5-year dividend growth rate, albeit with a slightly high yet acceptable 72.37% payout ratio

3M Company (MMM)

There’s a big chance that people reading this have a 3M product somewhere in their home. The company operates as a multinational conglomerate that offers products across several industries, including automotive, electronics, health care, safety, manufacturing, transportation, and general consumer markets. 

3M Company is a known innovator with over 100,000 product patents, the newest of which is the Padded Automatable Curbside Recyclable (PACR) Mailer Material. This is the first paper-based padded and fully recyclable packaging material that can be slotted into qualified automated packaging machines for automation. PACR is lightweight, heat-sealable, durable, resists moisture penetration, and comes in various sizes. 

The company currently pays $6.04 in annualized dividends per share, per the latest increase in February 2024, which translates to a 5.76% yield for MMM. 

Given 3M’s struggles in 2023, full-year 2024 guidance sees adjusted EPS ending between $9.35 and $9.75, comfortably covering its annual payout. 

The company has increased dividend payments for 64 consecutive years, making it a Dividend Aristocrat and King. Further, 3M has also been paying dividends for over 100 years, ranking it among the few Dividend Zombies in the market. 

Realty Income Corp (O)

Realty Income Corp is one of the most recognizable Dividend Aristocrats today. It is a real estate investment trust that focuses on commercial property investments in the US and various parts of the world. As of 2024, the company has long-term agreements with over 15,450 properties worldwide, which it uses to fund further investments and pay out an unbroken string of monthly dividends for shareholders. 

Speaking of dividends, Realty Income recently increased its dividend, starting with the April 2024 payout. The new dividend is $0.2570 per share. For O stock, that translates to a 5.91% forward yield. 

The company has also increased dividends for 106 consecutive quarters, or over 26 years, and boasts a 4.3% compound annual dividend growth rate since 1994.

By law, REITs must pay 90% of their earnings to investors, and funds from operations, or FFO, is a more suitable metric for measuring a REIT’s capacity to pay dividends. If you're an O stock shareholder, you'll be happy to know that management expects 2024 normalized FFO and adjusted FFO to end between $4.17-$4.29 and $4.13-$4.21, respectively- more than enough to cover the dividend.

As a result, dividend payouts—and the expected quarterly dividend increases—are more or less assured for investors, making O an excellent and reliable Dividend Aristocrat. 

Final Thoughts

Investment doesn’t have to be a fancy word for“gambling.” Dividend Aristocrats are safe for investors with milder dispositions, and yet these stocks don’t preclude growth over the long run. Patience is a virtue, as they say, and the potential returns are even better when tempered with good stock picks.   

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Source

https://www.barchart.com/story/news/25047419/highest-yielding-dividend-aristocrats-to-buy-today