Stockwatch...Telus Management's Stance on the Dividend
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1. The Extended Dividend Growth Program
The most concrete evidence of their commitment is the formal extension of their multi-year program:
Timeline Extended: In May 2025, Telus announced the extension of its dividend growth program, targeting annual increases from 2026 through the end of 2028.
Target Growth Rate: The planned annual increase for this new period is set to be in the range of 3% to 8% (a slight moderation from the previous 7%–10% range ending 2025).
Commitment to Sustainability: CEO Darren Entwistle emphasizes that this program reflects their "unwavering commitment to delivering superior value to our shareholders and building on our consistent track record of delivering on our multi-year dividend growth program."
2. The Free Cash Flow (FCF) Rationale
Management acknowledges the high payout ratio but insists the dividend's affordability is tied to a future, improving Free Cash Flow (FCF) profile.
Prospective Payout Target: Their long-term guideline for the dividend payout ratio is 60% to 75% of prospective FCF. This acknowledges that the current (historical) FCF payout ratio is high, but they believe it will fall within this range in the coming years.
The FCF Expansion Drivers: They project a "meaningful resulting free cash flow expansion" driven by two main factors:
Moderating Capital Expenditures (Capex): Telus is completing its major, costly build-out of its PureFibre and 5G networks. As this capital-intensive phase winds down, capex will drop, directly increasing FCF.
Growth in Tech/Health: Strong and growing profitability from their diversified divisions, specifically TELUS Health and TELUS Agriculture & Consumer Goods, is expected to contribute increasing Adjusted EBITDA.
3. Deleveraging and DRIP Reduction
Management has put forward a clear plan to address the debt and high payout metrics that concern analysts:
Debt Target: They are "squarely on track" to achieve their target Net Debt to EBITDA leverage ratio of 3.0x by 2027.
DRIP Discount Elimination: To strengthen the balance sheet and signal confidence, they are systematically stepping down and eliminating the discount on their Dividend Reinvestment Plan (DRIP) by the end of 2027. (Currently, the DRIP often offers a discount, which effectively issues new shares and dilutes existing holders to fund the dividend. Eliminating the discount is a sign of improved financial strength).
Summary of Management's Message
In short, Telus senior management is communicating that the dividend is safe and has a defined growth trajectory because:
1) They have a formal plan (extended through 2028).
2) They are transitioning from an intensive investment phase (high capex) to a harvest phase (high FCF).
3) They have a clear plan to reduce debt and remove the DRIP discount, which are the main sources of investor concern.
The debate essentially boils down to whether investors trust the management's ability to execute this transition and hit those key FCF and deleveraging targets by 2027/2028.
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Darren Entwistle, President and CEO (Since 2000)
Mr. Entwistle is the longest-serving CEO in the global telecommunications industry and is viewed as the architect of Telus's transformation and long-term strategy.
1. Transformation and Total Shareholder Return (TSR)
Past Performance: Since he took the helm in 2000, Telus has transformed from a regional telephone utility serving Western Canada into a global communications and information technology leader.
Shareholder Value: Under his leadership, Telus has generated a strong Total Shareholder Return (TSR). As of recent data, this return has been significantly higher than the return from the TSX and the MSCI World Telecom Services Index, demonstrating a successful focus on shareholder value over a long period.
Key Decisions: He made "big bets" early on in the 2000s on wireless and data services as the future of the company, which led to the massive network investments (capex) that are now central to the dividend debate.
2. Strategic Investment (The Capex Phase)
Long-Term View: Mr. Entwistle has driven a strategy of aggressive, generation-spanning investment in globally leading broadband networks (PureFibre and 5G). This explains the consistently high capital expenditures Telus has made.
Non-Telecom Diversification: He personally championed the company's entry into the healthcare technology market (TELUS Health) and the agriculture/consumer goods segments. This strategic diversification is the foundation for the company's current Free Cash Flow (FCF) expansion plans.
Copper Network Decommissioning: He has consistently prioritized the decommissioning of Telus’s older copper networks, replacing them with fibre to achieve "deeper cost savings" and a "stronger competitive position."
3. Dividend and Culture Commitment
Consistent Dividend Growth: The multi-year dividend growth program, which began in 2004, is a hallmark of his tenure. He has a track record of continuously raising the dividend, with 34 increases since 2004.
Culture: He is widely noted for building a strong, customer-centric corporate culture, which management links directly to its operational success and financial results. He even received his entire salary in Telus shares indefinitely from 2010 to 2015, and more recently announced he would do so again, signaling strong personal confidence in the long-term stock value.
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Doug French, Executive Vice-President and CFO (CFO Since 2016)
Mr. French has been with Telus since 1996 and has held the CFO role since 2016. His experience is deeply rooted in the financial mechanics of the company's growth.
1. Financial Management Expertise
Deep Experience: With over 30 years of financial management experience and 20 years in the Canadian telecommunications industry, he has been involved in many of the company's major financial events, including its expansion from a regional to a national carrier.
Track Record on Reporting: Under his leadership, Telus has consistently received multiple awards for the quality of its external reporting, suggesting a high standard for transparency and disclosure.
Key Events: He has held numerous key roles associated with capital market activities, including the issuance of billions of dollars in debt and equity, which directly relates to the company's current debt load and financing strategy.
2. Executing the FCF Strategy
Synergy Realization: As CFO, he oversees the realization of cost and revenue synergies from major acquisitions, such as LifeWorks (now part of TELUS Health). Management has reported achieving significant milestones on the projected synergy goals under his direction.
Deleveraging Plan: He is the key executive responsible for delivering the current financial targets, including the $2.5 billion capital expenditure goal for 2025 and the specific plan to achieve a Net Debt to EBITDA ratio of 3.0x by 2027 by utilizing strategies like asset monetization (e.g., wireless towers) and eliminating the DRIP discount.
In summary, the management team has a proven, long-term history of being highly strategic, focused on long-term capital investment for growth, and aggressively committed to dividend increases as a core pillar of shareholder returns. The challenge they currently face (high debt and high payout ratios) is a direct, intended consequence of their successful, but costly, multi-decade strategy to build out industry-leading networks and diversify the business.
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Telus Dividend Safety: The Three-Pillar Strategy
1. ⬆️ EBITDA Growth and Non-Telecom Synergies
The Goal: To generate a rapidly growing profit stream from non-telecom businesses to raise overall profitability (Adjusted EBITDA).
The Evidence: The TELUS Health (LifeWorks) integration has been a major success, delivering $417 million in combined annualized synergies (nearly 2.5 times the original target).
The Impact: This successful integration and the growth of TELUS Health and TELUS Agriculture drive high-margin revenue, which improves the company's overall financial health and increases the cash available from operations.
2. ⬇️ Moderating Capital Expenditures (Capex)
The Goal: To dramatically reduce the amount of cash spent on building out networks, thereby boosting Free Cash Flow (FCF).
The Evidence: Management is transitioning from an intensive investment phase (with Capex peaking around $3.65 billion) to a harvest phase, targeting a sharp reduction in consolidated Capex to approximately $2.5 billion in 2025.
The Impact: Since FCF is calculated by subtracting CapEx, a $1+ billion reduction in CapEx directly translates to a massive increase in FCF, providing the liquidity needed to cover the dividend payments. Management is guiding toward a strong $2.15 billion in FCF for 2025.
That brings us to the core investment thesis for Telus. The safety of the dividend comes down to which side of the argument—the current financial pressure or the future FCF plan—you believe will prevail.
3. ✅ Deleveraging and Balance Sheet Discipline
The Goal: To lower the high debt load that currently concerns credit rating agencies and investors, improving the overall risk profile.
The Evidence: They are "squarely on track" to hit a Net Debt to EBITDA ratio of 3.0x by 2027. This plan is supported by:
The increased FCF from points 1 and 2.
Asset Monetization (e.g., selling wireless towers).
The systematic removal of the discount on their Dividend Reinvestment Plan (DRIP) by the end of 2027, which reduces the issuance of new, dilutive shares.
The Impact: Successful deleveraging reduces interest expense and lowers the financial risk, making the dividend more secure in the long run.
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Final Verdict
The dividend is currently under pressure from high historical payout ratios and debt, but the management team, with a proven track record under CEO Entwistle, has a credible, specific, and measurable three-year plan (2026-2028) centered on FCF expansion and deleveraging to ensure its sustainability and targeted growth (3% to 8% annually).
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Source
Google Gemini
