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Thursday, July 16, 2020

Small Cap News on the TSX

Small Cap News on the TSX

 Goodfood Market Corp. (FOOD-T) announced a $35-million bought-deal offering. The company said it has an agreement with a syndicate of underwriters co-led by Desjardins Capital Markets and Stifel GMP that has agreed to purchase 5,788,000 offered shares at a price of $6.05 each. The shares closed at $6.45 on Wednesday, prior to the announcement.

The shares include 4,135,000 common shares of the company and 1,653,000 from shareholders, including CEO Jonathan Ferrari, president and chief operating officer Neil Cuggy, vice-president of merchandising Raffi Krikorian and director Hamnett Hill.

The gross proceeds will be about $25-million to the company and $10-million to the shareholders.

The company said it intends to use the net proceeds "to fund capital and operational projects to build out same-day delivery capabilities through fulfilment technology and automation equipment and for general corporate purposes."

“The accelerating adoption of online grocery and home meal solutions has brought forward Goodfood’s growth and profitability plan and this capital raised will support our continued push for growth and bolster the efficiency and breadth of our operations,” stated Mr. Ferrari in the release.


Savaria Corp. (SIS-T) said it expects second-quarter revenue to come in at $84.5-million, a drop of 10.2 per cent from the same quarter in 2019. Analysts are expecting revenue of $80.6-million for the quarter ended June 30.

The company said adjusted EBITDA is estimated at $14.5-million, an increase of 2 per cent when compared to the same period in 2019.

“Our extensive accessibility product portfolio, along with our efforts to build out a global distribution network, as well as significant cost-containment efforts, all contributed to our strong results, despite the challenging climate presented by the COVID-19 pandemic.” stated CEO Marcel Bourassa.

He said official results will be released on Aug. 12 after the market close.

Tuesday, June 16, 2020

Stephen Takacsy on BNN=Bloomberg’s Market Call – June 16, 2020

Stephen Takacsy on BNN-Bloomberg’s Market Call – June 16,  2020

MARKET OUTLOOK

 

Following the crash in March from government-imposed lockdowns, stock markets have surprisingly rallied strongly. This is due to a combination of central banks compressing interest rates and massive government stimulus and the economy reopening with hopes for a quick recovery. It is also influenced by short covering, fears of missing out and faith a vaccine will be found soon. However, we’re entering a period of volatility as the market retraces some of its rapid gains and there will be a marked separation between winners and losers. Not all businesses will recover equally as governments maintain certain restrictions and a large swath of the population maintain a cautious behaviour while unemployment remains high.

 

Most companies have removed their guidance for the remainder of the year and beyond and upcoming Q2 results with be telling on how bad the damage is. A few companies are thriving and some are little affected, but most will continue to suffer such as the travel and leisure sector, live entertainment, restaurants, retail, real estate, financials and energy. Utilities, telecom, consumer staples, healthcare and certain technology and industrial companies will be the safer investments. The broad indexes will be a volatile place to be, so it should be a stock-pickers market. We are being prudent, holding 10 per cent in cash and sustainable dividend-paying stocks while trying to assess where the best investment opportunities lie and position our portfolio for strong long-term returns as government restrictions are loosened and the economy gradually begins to function more normally.

 

TOP PICKS

 

CENTRIC HEALTH (CHH TSX)

 

Centric is one of Canada’s largest medication providers for senior care facilities. The stock has performed really well and is up since the pandemic began for two reasons: Their business is unaffected by the lockdowns because seniors need their medication and the company made a large accretive acquisition, making them the no. 1 player in Canada. Having just raised funds at $0.20, Centric now has a strong balance sheet to consolidate this fragmented industry. The company is changing its name to CareRx and consolidating its share count. Stock is cheap and could double over 12 months. We now own around 5 per cent of the company.

 

MEDIAGRIF INTERACTIVE TECHNOLOGIES (MDF TSX)

 

Like Shopify, Mediagrif provides e-commerce solutions for businesses, though on a larger scale. They manage the online platform for Sobeys/IGA and also for Carrefour in Italy, the only company enabling online food orders during the peak of the crisis. It also owns platforms that enable suppliers to bid on government contracts, allowing corporations to exchange data with their suppliers and customers. This is one of the rare companies doing well and benefitting from businesses going digital. Whereas Shopify trades at over 40 times’ sales, Mediagrif trades at around 1 time. This is a new position. We now own 5 per cent of the company.

 

SIENNA SENIOR LIVING (SIA TSX)


Sienna owns over 100 long-term care facilities and retirement homes in Ontario and B.C. Due to media coverage of the pandemic and high death rate among seniors, the entire sector has been dramatically oversold. Vacancy rates at retirement residences have increased slightly, but this is transitory and will be absorbed by aging demographics. Sienna’s dividend is now yielding over 9 per cent and is entirely covered by government-guaranteed cash flows from its LTC facilities. Sienna has a solid balance sheet. While we expect operating costs to rise, we also expect governments to increase funding. We bought more shares at $9.

 

Stephen  Takacsy, CEO and chief investment officer, 
Lester Asset Management

Friday, May 15, 2020

Brookfield Asset Management…Q1 2020, Letter to Shareholders

Brookfield Asset Management…Q1 2020, Letter to Shareholders

 

Overview

 

During the first quarter of 2020, our fee income grew significantly, most of our underlying businesses were resilient, and our financial assets were largely protected as we had hedged many of them with indexes. As a result, our recurring results were very strong, and the hedges offset a good portion of the mark-to-market losses on our financial positions. We reported fee earnings up 44% on a last twelve-month basis, and operating FFO up 6% on the same basis. During the quarter, we reported FFO of $884 million, cash available for distribution or reinvestment of $751 million, and a net loss as a result of a number of one-time non-cash adjustments of $157 million.

 

In addition to managing our businesses over the last few months, we supported many relief initiatives across the United States, Canada, Europe, India, Brazil, Australia and Asia. In addition to capital, we provided medical supplies to hospitals and hotel rooms for frontline medical staff, and made our hospitals available to governments. We also have tens of thousands of people working in difficult situations to keep water and electricity flowing, natural gas for heating and cooling delivered, offices open, goods available in stores, and mission-critical infrastructure operating. Without these services the world does not operate, and we thank our people for their commitment and fortitude.

The outlook for our asset management franchise is very strong as we have substantial capital for investment and broad relationships through which to source further capital. In addition, our Oaktree distressed debt franchise is finding attractive opportunities to pursue. As for all the businesses we own, on balance we are in good shape. Most of our businesses have only been tangentially affected by Covid-19. Our renewables, infrastructure, and office property businesses have performed very well. We are also working hard to ensure that in those businesses that have been affected, we are able to not only withstand the downturn, but also use our capital position to enhance operations through this period of stress.

While a large portion of our businesses have operated throughout this crisis as they are critical infrastructure, we have now moved our focus to the re-opening phase for all of our remaining operations and offices.

 Market Environment

The first quarter saw records set for many historical metrics. These have been well reported, so we will not repeat them here. It is safe to say, however, that while acknowledging the health and financial issues during the quarter, we came through the period in relatively good shape. While the second quarter will be tough for every business, including ours, it appears that we at least know better what we are dealing with.

Credit markets have opened for investment-grade borrowers; some non-investment grade issuers have been able to access capital; and equity markets have partially recovered in what would technically be considered a bull market. At the same time, economic numbers for the next while are going to look quite poor, and there is no doubt that business will continue to be challenging for some time.

The more positive tone of the stock and bond markets are the result of the government measures to combat the health crisis, and the enormous stimulus programs that have been unleashed into the markets globally – in particular in the United States. No one knows how either will ultimately fare, but it is clear that without these efforts we would all be in a much different place.

 Performance Update

Financial results were strong this quarter, benefiting from stable and growing cash flows from our asset management franchise and strong underlying performance from our assets and portfolio companies. Assets under management and fee-bearing capital grew over the last twelve months to $519 billion and $264 billion respectively, representing increases of 42% and 76% from the prior year. This growth includes the addition of Oaktree and more than $45 billion of capital raised from third parties over the last twelve months, including approximately $9 billion in the most recent quarter.

 Fundraising and Fee-Bearing Capital

Our latest round of flagship funds are now approximately 50% invested or committed, and we expect to continue to find strong opportunities to deploy their remaining capital as the current environment begins to stabilize over the coming months. Oaktree has also been actively investing its latest distressed debt fund, as opportunities have picked up considerably. The fund is now approximately 80% invested and fundraising has been launched for its next fund vintage, which is expected to hold its first close in the coming months.

Our growth in fee-bearing capital led to an increase in fee-related earnings of 35% in the quarter relative to the same period a year ago, and a 44% increase in earnings for the last twelve months, both before performance fees. These increases are due to the capital raised in our infrastructure and private equity flagship funds, and across our perpetual private fund strategies. Fee-related earnings also benefited from increased revenues from our partnerships over the last twelve months, and the addition of two quarters of fee-related earnings from Oaktree.

 Funds from Operations (“FFO”) and Cash Available for Distribution and Reinvestment (“CAFDR”)

Our Funds from Operations (“FFO”) from invested capital during the quarter and last twelve months decreased modestly, primarily as a result of lower mark-to-market gains on financial assets and cash flows within our renewables marketing business. In addition, certain portfolio companies experienced production slowdowns during the quarter as a result of the economic environment, but these impacts were modest, and while the impact will be greater next quarter, we expect this effect to be short-lived, given the quality and defensive nature of our businesses. All this resulted in our operating FFO being broadly even with the prior year’s level, at roughly $720 million. On a trailing twelve-month basis, results are comparatively strong, with operating FFO of $2.9 billion.

The other important operating metric we report is our Cash Available for Distribution or Reinvestment (“CAFDR”), which is the free cash flow we generate at BAM (fee-related earnings plus the distributions we receive from our listed affiliates). In the first quarter we generated $721 million of CAFDR before carried interest, which is higher than Q4 2019 and considerably higher than the same quarter last year, reflecting the growth in the asset management franchise and growth in distributions from the listed issuers. While our FFO reflects our in-quarter earnings, the CAFDR is a good indicator of the long-term earnings power of the franchise, as it combines fee- related earnings with what we believe to be the long-term sustainable earnings of the listed affiliates. These results further underline the resiliency and stability of our business model. Our annualized CAFDR is $2.4 billion, before accounting for any carried interest.

 Carried Interest

As of March 31, 2020, the gross unrealized carried interest accumulated for our portion of investment gains was $3.2 billion. The long-term nature of our funds allows us to be patient with regard to exiting investments, and to therefore better maximize value creation. This is different from many other managers who own far greater amounts of liquid securities in funds and have therefore had to take greater mark-to-market losses during the quarter. In addition, we follow conservative accounting standards and this $3.2 billion asset has not yet been recorded in our income statement, nor is it recorded as an asset on our balance sheet.

Over the past twelve months, we took $370 million of net realized carried interest into income, including $59 million during the first quarter. We also accrued $379 million of new carried interest, before the impact of foreign exchange and costs over the same twelve-month period. The impact of the most recent quarter was not significant compared to our total unrealized carried interest today, as the majority of the investments within our funds are critical assets and/or are assets that have long-term, contracted or regulated cash flow streams. We have minimal exposure to public securities or energy investments, so most of our assets were not impacted by the volatility in those markets.

 Investments

 We invested or committed for investment approximately $11 billion of capital during the quarter. We closed on several previously announced transactions, and we announced a merger agreement to take TerraForm Power private into Brookfield Renewable. We invested $5.5 billion across Brookfield strategies, and Oaktree invested $1.5 billion of capital from their latest flagship distressed debt fund as well as an additional $4 billion across their other strategies.

We have recently deployed approximately $2 billion of capital into the public equity markets, including repurchasing shares of BAM and our public affiliates at significant discounts to what we believe to be their intrinsic value, as their prices traded down with the general market sell-off. We have also built up toehold positions in the shares of several companies that we feel, like ours, are being significantly undervalued in the current market environment.

 Capital Availability

We have over $60 billion of cash and uncalled fund and loan commitments from clients and financial partners. This includes $46 billion of client commitments for new investments and $15 billion of liquidity in the form of cash, financial assets, and long-dated committed credit facilities across BAM and our public affiliates, which remain largely undrawn. This number includes approximately $1.5 billion of long-term financing across BAM and our public affiliates raised after quarter end, which included $750 million at BAM, C$400 million at BIP, and C$350 million at BEWe also increased our credit facilities by $2 billion, and we continue to experience strong access to credit markets. A few weeks ago, one of our U.S. hydro facilities finalized a $560 million, 10-year asset recourse-only debt financing with an all-in coupon of 4%. Looking forward, we will continue to add to our liquidity and deploy capital as opportunities arise. Together with our various pools of capital – including the dry powder within our flagship private funds, Oaktree’s funds, and other funds we are raising – we are well positioned, with a target to have in the short term over $75 billion of dry powder (investable capital) to support our strategies.

 Liquidity, Liquidity and Liquidity

 In reflecting on what really matters to our business, it is Liquidity, Liquidity and Liquidity, in that order. It is not this quarter’s results or next quarter’s, and it is not whether we make great investments during this financial crisis. It also is not whether we raise another large fund. All of these are important, but none is the most critical. And while we hope to report strong results, make great investments and raise large new funds, they are not what really matters.

What really matters is liquidity. The most damaging thing for any business owner is to find yourself out of business and unable to participate in the recovery, or in a position of needing to issue shares which dilute the owners, and therefore make it impossible to ever recover from undue dilution at the wrong time. As all of you know, most businesses survive, but sometimes with new owners (debt converted into equity or shares issued to new investors), and that dilutive process is one of the most destructive forces that exists in long-term wealth creation.

It is important to note that if a business has not previously prepared for a period like the one we’re in now, it is often too late. As Mr. Buffett has been famously quoted as saying over the years, “Only when the tide goes out do you discover who’s been swimming naked.” The one thing that really matters is that a business can make it through this period, intact and without undue harm. That is what counts. And it is usually a function of having made preparations before the tide went out.

Fortunately, we are in a very strong position financially. This includes low amounts of long-term corporate leverage; $15 billion of cash and available term credit lines on our parent company and partnership balance sheets; $46 billion of investor capital available for deployment; virtually no cross or corporate guarantees on assetspecific debt; and relationships with financial institutions and institutional clients that span decades. As a result, we are confident that we are well prepared in terms of what really matters.

 Adaptability

At Brookfield, our goal for a very long time has been to build one of the best alternative asset management businesses globally, and to provide these services to an expanding array of institutional and retail clients. While this is our solidly established long-term goal, we have always believed that we should be very flexible with regard to execution. No one really knows what the future holds; the current situation exemplifies the need for flexibility within the confines of our long-term goals.

Our investment strategy is based on buying value. We underwrite businesses’ cash flows and look at the longterm sustainability of those cash flows. But we remain flexible in terms of how we access opportunities as markets change. Our private funds had been investing in carve-outs of assets from companies for years, as high valuations in the public markets offered few opportunities. Today, the opposite is true. We are buying shares of companies in our private funds at a fraction of what we would have to pay to acquire those same assets directly from the companies. Our goal is the same; it is just the execution that is different.

We partnered with Oaktree last year because we wanted to have a full-scale operation to acquire debt in the secondary markets, and to have professionals capable of underwriting financing to companies when capital is unavailable elsewhere. The Oaktree franchise has a goal of providing primary capital to companies, or buying secondary debt, on a value basis. Depending on markets, they adapt their strategy to deploy capital. During March, prior to announcement of the Federal Reserve’s bond buying programs, they were purchasing significant amounts of debt in the secondary markets, as the yield spreads had gapped out significantly. Post the announcements, spreads tightened and a greater focus in April was on providing funds directly to companies in need of capital.

The important point of these examples is that we are constantly adapting our strategies for investment, but the underlying goal is always the same – to build one of the highest-quality alternative investment managers.

 Permanent Capital

One of the great strengths of Brookfield is our very large base of permanent capital. With over $100 billion of permanent equity, we have the ability to ride out storms that inevitably occur in markets. This has been exemplified recently, as we had minimal financing issues despite the market stress. We are fortunate to have been in the markets, issuing investment-grade financing from our balance sheet and from our permanent equity listed affiliates. This distinction is always very helpful; however, in times like this it is the difference between being able to look to the future rather than having to spend time focusing on the past.

For many years, our perpetual listed affiliates have played an integral role in the growth of our business. Brookfield Property Partners (“BPY”), Infrastructure Partners (“BIP”), Renewable Partners (“BEP”) and Business Partners (“BBU”) provide dedicated investment entities for investors seeking exposure to specific asset classes. They have delivered strong compound annual returns for their shareholders’ invested capital and our own, while providing transparent and stable cash flow streams. The creation of these entities enabled us to simplify our balance sheet for investors, and they now are a powerful source of permanent capital for us.

These entities own high-quality assets with strong downside protection, and they generate sustainable long-term, cash flows. Within BIP and BEP, revenues are generated from long-dated contracts, regulated revenues or “take-or-pay” arrangements. In BPY, the majority of the properties have long-dated lease agreements with high credit-quality tenants. As a result of the stability of the cash flows, each of these entities was set up to pay their annual distributions that equated to a long-term target of approximately 70% of FFO. The quality of our assets, combined with our investment-grade balance sheets, should enable the partnerships to continue to do that.

As a result, each of these entities has met its long-term growth and distribution targets since inception. Even in times of stress, such as the prolonged period of low water levels within our renewable power business in 2016, we maintained and grew our distributions because of the conviction we had in the long-term profitability of the underlying business. This strategy was validated in 2018 and 2019 when water levels returned to normal levels, bringing our distributions back on track to our long-term ratios.

All of these entities are conservatively capitalized with strong access to capital, with the goal of being self-sustaining to fund their growth activities and obligations. Today, each of BPY, BIP and BEP has an investment-grade balance sheet supported by a strategy of financing underlying assets on a standalone, predominantly investment-grade basis. Even just in the past few weeks, through all the uncertainty and volatility, they all have been able to access the capital markets to further bolster their liquidity.

The existence of the four businesses as listed entities also affords us the ability to use them to make large-scale acquisitions. This is a meaningful competitive advantage that has proven to be tremendously powerful in its own right, but even more so when combined with the capital available from our private funds and co-investment partners. A few examples of this in the recent past are the acquisitions of Babcock and Brown Infrastructure in BIP, TerraForm Power in BEP, and Canary Wharf and GGP in BPY.

Today, the distributions we receive from our ownership in each of the four listed affiliates provide us $1.4 billion of stable and predictable annual free cash flows that we use to re-invest into our business or return to shareholders, as we see fit. We also receive perpetual fee revenues for managing these entities, which currently run at approximately $535 million per year. We intend to continue to grow these entities along with the rest of our business in the longer term.

Lastly, from time to time, these partnerships, like most marketable securities, trade in the market at discounts to intrinsic value. We will continue to purchase shares of these entities during these periods. Furthermore, where these discounts persist, we will also always consider more meaningful changes to these entities in order to maximize value.

 Retail Real Estate

In retail real estate, we own a very high-quality portfolio of properties that we believe, in the medium term, will be stronger than in the past. We expect that our centers will continue to benefit from their premier locations in a consolidating retail environment. This has already been happening over the last few years, and the current environment will accelerate it. Recent trends will also increase our ability to convert space into alternative uses at strong long-term returns.

Our “places” have always provided a safe and clean environment for people to shop and be entertained. We are in the midst of re-opening our centers, with new measures in place that will enable them to be among the safest places for people to send their families. As a result, we do believe that these major centers will once again flourish.

With respect to revenues in the short term, our centers are leased to three types of tenants. The first includes healthy global high-quality retailers that are in good financial shape, need their stores to operate, and have paid or will pay their rent. The second includes other high-quality retailers – but for them, this shutdown is causing financial stress. We suspect some will do well and move through this crisis without issues, others will be recapitalized (some have recently issued equity), and some will file for bankruptcy protection, which will likely result in some spaces being freed up. Prior to this shutdown, we had a long list of online retailers looking for space in our premier locations, and we expect that to continue in the future.

The third tenant group consists of small businesses (such as restaurants, bars, and other retail establishments). Many of the government programs are targeted at this group, and we too are focused on assisting these entrepreneurs in getting back on their feet and continuing to employ people. In addition to providing assistance to smaller retailers, we also plan on utilizing the knowledge and position we enjoy to invest in retail companies as this industry consolidates.

 Closing

 We remain committed to being a world-class alternative asset manager, and to investing capital for you and our investment partners in high-quality assets that earn solid cash returns on equity, while emphasizing downside protection for the capital employed. The primary objective of the company continues to be generating increasing cash flows on a per-share basis, and as a result, higher intrinsic value per share over the longer term.

Please do not hesitate to contact any of us should you have suggestions, questions, comments or ideas you wish to share. And please take care and be safe.

Sincerely, Bruce Flatt, 

Chief Executive Officer,

May 14, 2020


Friday, May 1, 2020

Stephen Takacsy on BNN=Bloomberg’s Market Call – April 28,2020

Stephen Takacsy on BNN=Bloomberg’s Market Call – April 28,2020

MARKET OUTLOOK

Today’s economic collapse is the result of governments protecting citizens from a deadly virus and forcing human and commercial behavior to change to contain its spread. Governments have imposed harsh restrictions on everyday life, forcing non-essential businesses to shut down while many essential one’s struggle to cope. While central banks have stabilized the financial system and governments announced massive stimulus packages, these restrictions are having a material negative impact on businesses and we don’t know how long they will last. It is not surprising that governments chose to protect the health of its citizens over protecting the economy, but this will come to a head as the population’s economic welfare continues to decline.

For investors, there was little time to react. Businesses that were normally recession-proof such as movie theaters and quick service restaurants closed overnight. This is not a normal environment to do fundamental analysis, so we need to do a much deeper dive into our companies and continuously assess how they are being impacted as the situation continues to evolve. We keep asking ourselves: How have our companies been impacted and how will they fare if the lockdown drags on? At what rate will they recover once restrictions are lifted? Will human behavior change causing a permanent impairment in certain businesses and creating opportunities in others?

We have participated in more conference calls with senior management in the past month than we normally would in a year. It is “different this time” and businesses will recover at different rates. We are being prudent trying to assess where the best opportunities lie and position our portfolio for strong long-term returns once governments loosen restrictions and allow the economy to function more normally.

TOP PICKS

CENTRIC HEALTH (CHH TSX)

Centric is one of Canada’s largest providers of medication to senior care facilities. The stock has performed really well and is up since the pandemic began for two reasons: 1) lockdown or not, seniors need their medication and 2) the company is completing a large accretive acquisition which will make them the no. 1 player in Canada. Centric has a strong balance sheet to continue consolidating this fragmented industry. The stock is still cheap and has the potential to double over the next 12 months. We have been accumulating shares and now own around 5 per cent of the company.

MEDIAGRIF INTERACTIVE TECHNOLOGIES (MDF TSX)
New position.

Mediagrif providea Shopify-like e-commerce solutions, but for much larger companies. They manage the online platform for Sobeys/IGA and also for Carrefour in Italy, the only company enabling online food orders during the peak the crisis. It also owns platforms that enable suppliers to bid on government contracts, allowing corporations to exchange data with their suppliers and customers. This is one of the rare companies doing well in this environment and benefitting from businesses going digital. Whereas Shopify trades at 35 times revenue, Mediagrif trades at just under one time. We have been accumulating shares and now own 5 per cent of the company.


Sienna owns over 100 long-term care facilities and retirement homes in Ontario and B.C. Due to COVID-19 and the high number of deaths among seniors, the entire sector has been way oversold. Vacancy rates at their retirement residences have increased slightly, but this is transitory and will be absorbed by aging demographics. Sienna’s dividend is now yielding over 8 per cent and is entirely covered by government-guaranteed cash flows from its long-term care facilities. Sienna has a solid balance sheet and trades at a huge discount to multi-residential REITs. We bought more shares during March and April.

Stephen  Takacsy, CEO and chief investment officer, 
Lester Asset Management

Friday, April 17, 2020

Brookfield in a Nutshell


Brookfield in a Nutshell

The common thread in what we do is that we buy tangible assets. And everything that we invest in generally is backed by an asset that generates cash or an asset that will ultimately turn into generating cash. So we may buy a property that’s not full, that we need to find the tenants for and invest in, but ultimately it will generate cash flow. So all the things we have are tangible, and virtually every investment we make—using a 10-year cash flow model, you can produce what your internal rate of return will be.

We have office buildings, which are a little bit different than our power plants, which are a little bit different than our toll-roads—but from an investment perspective, these are “real” assets. We don’t bet on new technologies, we don’t do bio-tech; we invest in hard, tangible-type things that generate cash.

Bruce Flatt,
CEO of Brookfield Asset Management,
September 10, 2019

Thursday, April 16, 2020

Beutel Goodman Speaker Series…Featuring Bruce Flatt, CEO of Brookfield Asset Management


Beutel Goodman Speaker Series…Featuring Bruce Flatt, CEO of Brookfield Asset Management

On September 10, 2019, James Black, Vice President, Canadian Equities led a fire-side chat with Bruce Flatt, Chief Executive Officer at Brookfield Asset Management for the latest event in our Beutel Goodman Speaker Series. Bruce joined Brookfield in 1990 and was named CEO in 2002. Under his leadership, the company has developed a global operating presence in over 30 countries, giving him unique insight into many of the issues facing the world today.

Brookfield Asset Management, a company with over US$350 billion in assets under management and investments in real estate, infrastructure, renewable power and private equity, has been an investment in our Canadian Equity strategies for several years. What follows is an edited transcript of a highly insightful exchange that covers everything from the origins of the company to recent acquisitions to Bruce’s outlook for the global economy.

James Black…
Thanks very much and welcome everybody. We are thrilled to have you join us today, Bruce. Full disclosure: in addition to Beutel Goodman having owned the stock since 2014, I was an employee at Brookfield Asset Management for about two and a half years, around 12 years ago. Brookfield has been a substantial contributor to the investment performance of our funds, and most importantly, to the capital appreciation of clients’ portfolios. So Bruce, on behalf of all of us, thank you. I was hoping we could start by stepping back in history a bit and talking about the origins of Brookfield to help people who are less familiar frame how the company has evolved from an owner of assets across a number of asset classes to both an owner and an asset manager.

Bruce Flatt…
Thanks James, and I’ll just start off by saying thank you everyone for coming. I am proud that Beutel Goodman is an investor in Brookfield.

As to the origins of Brookfield, here’s what I would start with: sometimes you get lucky in business. One of our people came upon a very interesting idea 25 years ago, and we invested into all of the things we do today at that point in time. At that time we were also invested in a lot of other assets, but we disposed of them because they were commodity-related, highly volatile businesses and although they tended to do really well if you picked the right timing, they did poorly over long cycles. If you invested in them on a cost-of-capital basis, it was very tough to make a return over a long period of time as a permanent investor.

Instead, we decided to focus on core businesses that we still have today: real estate, infrastructure, renewable power and our industrial business, which we call our private equity business. At that time, we concluded that the only legitimate way that we could expand the business and get to the scale we needed was to find capital to invest beside us. We thought about different ways we could do this and came upon the idea that if we could provide these products to institutional clients, they would place them into their portfolios and we could earn them a reasonable return. At that point in time, some competing funds were investing directly in real estate, but nobody did infrastructure or renewables, and private equity was just starting out as an allocation in U.S. plans via some of the big private equity players.

I’d say this is where luck played into it: over the last 25 years, institutional pools of money grew exponentially, while interest rates declined from 8.5%-9% to 1-2%. This combination of events meant that our first institutional investors did very well with us and with others who provided the same types of alternative products. It gave them the confidence to continue to invest, but more importantly—and this is the luck—some of the institutional funds are so large now that they almost have no other choice than to put money into alternatives. When you get to a point where you can’t roll a 2% coupon over in a fund; when those coupons are now negative, you just can’t legitimately invest in fixed income when rates are negative. Every Japanese client we have, every Korean client we have, every European client we have is in this situation.

We experienced this for 10 years in Japan and it’s starting in Europe today, so the wall of money is pushing somewhere else. I’m not a macro-economist and I don’t try to be, but I think the enormous pressure on the U.S. Treasury at 30 years and 10 years is because of these institutional clients with massive rollovers of capital and nowhere else to go. There really are only three places in the world where all of that money can go: equity markets, alternatives, and U.S. treasuries. U.S. treasuries are at least positive today, but it’s scary to buy them at 1%—at best you’re going to earn 1% for 30 years, and they [rates] might go up to 2% and you’d lose a lot of money.

We got really lucky. We executed and took a business that was largely investing for our own balance sheet—and we still do that—but now we’re investing on behalf of an enormous client base. With every transaction, about 20% of the money is sourced from one of the discretionary balance sheets we have control over and 80% from institutional clients. That has been a big change in the business and we’ve had a great ride. We’ve compounded at 17%, 18% for 20 years. But I really think the wall of money is only starting.

James Black…
In addition to the private funds and the institutional clients, you have a second source of third-party capital—your listed investments in your four major asset category partners: Brookfield Property Partners, Brookfield Infrastructure Partners, Brookfield Renewable Energy Partners, and Brookfield Business Partners, your private equity listed fund. What roles do they fill in your asset-management strategy?

Bruce Flatt…
Fifteen to twenty years ago, we thought what we needed was broad access to liquidity, because the things we buy, own, build and run have enormous asset values. The one tower at Brookfield Place – which we are looking out at—alone, for instance, is worth $1.6 billion to $1.7 billion. We looked at master limited partnerships in the United States and thought, “How can we adapt those models to benefit our investors?”

We created all four of our partnerships listed on the New York and Toronto stock exchanges through spin outs. Brookfield Asset Management kept 30%-40% and gave the balance of the shares of the spinoffs to existing shareholders, thus creating the permanent partnerships that invest beside our institutional clients. The way we think of them is we provide our institutional clients real estate expertise, infrastructure expertise, power expertise, or private equity expertise and we provide the same thing to retail investors in the stock market by having these listed vehicles. We have discretion over the investments just like we have with our institutional clients, and it just gives us a different source of capital, which allows us to do things that most other investment managers we compete with can’t do. These permanent capital vehicles give us access to the capital markets and they help us build the business significantly. They participate in exactly the same areas our institutional clients participate in.

James Black…
Can you talk a bit about Brookfield’s investment strategy?

Bruce Flatt…
Our view is that capital in a business should either have a strategic advantage when invested or it should be given back to shareholders and somebody else should take that capital and invest it where there is strategic advantage. We care a lot about capital allocation and organically over the last 25 years, we’ve come upon three things that give our capital an advantage:

1. Because of our institutional clients, our partnerships and our own balance sheets, we have access to more money than most people in the world, so a $100-million transaction may have 35 investors who can bid for it; a $1-billion transaction may have 8; and a $5-billion transaction may have 3—and once in a while, there may only be 1 or 2 people who can bid for it. That is an enormous advantage, so we try to use that as a strategic advantage and we’ve gotten to a point where most things we do have a scale.

2. We have people in 30 countries around the world who ensure that when we make mistakes, we can dig our way out. We know how to get money into and out of a country. We know the rule of law and whether or not a nation respects capital. We only go to places that adhere to our strict criteria. Most importantly, we are value investors, and the only way we felt we could continue to be value investors was to be diversified not just across industries but also across countries, because countries don’t all act the same way at the same time. This allows us to move money to the places that require capital, and therefore the large sums of money on the margin are always being allocated to these value-based places.

3. The value of having strategic partners is the 100,000 people who work for Brookfield. They work for those partnerships; they stay within those businesses; they are permanent to us. This gives us an enormous differentiation of the capital that we have.
James Black…
What we find attractive about Brookfield as an investment is that in many ways, your approach is valuebased, long-term—you buy stuff that in most cases you can own forever. That’s very much how we look at investments. We have a minimum three-year time horizon and we want a 15% annual return over that time horizon with new investments. Brookfield has a similar approach, depending on the asset class, but would look for a mid-double-digit return on assets over time. So this is a very easy company for us to own because we understand the basis on which the investment decisions are being made. I’d love to hear a couple of war stories when it comes to investments. Maybe one that worked out better than you thought it would and one that didn’t, and what you took away from those.

Bruce Flatt…
Well James, in a record that is pretty good over a long period of time, I can tell you that we’ve made a lot of mistakes. Maybe the most important thing we’ve found about making mistakes is never bet the franchise on anything, and if you do bet, be very aware of the mistakes you make and learn from them instead of letting them destroy the franchise.

The biggest thing for us is going into new industries or new businesses or new countries – and I’ll say this about Canadian companies – about 30 years ago I started going to the U.S. and trying to build the business. The horror stories you’d hear about Canadian companies going to the United States and getting their feet blown off was just tragic. It destroyed a lot of management teams’ incentive to build their businesses in the U.S. We did it slowly and I think that was really important because if you blow your feet off in an investment, even if it doesn’t harm the company irreparably financially, what it does is take away the confidence of the management team or the board, and it takes years or decades to reverse that in a corporate culture. So for us it’s really important that we don’t make any really large mistakes, although we have made lots of small ones.

One mistake that may be relevant to some of you is investing in foreign places, even if that is just buying stocks outside of your native currency. Often people don’t think about currency; they think they’re a genius to have bought something that has gone up 40%, until they figure out that 40% after a 40%-decline in the currency is actually a loss.

We had been in Brazil for a long time, just due to some of the history of the company. We sold a lot of assets back in 2005-2007, but then the financial crisis arrived there and we doubled down, tripled down. We bought some amazing assets—in fact, we bought a lot of these assets, I would say, at 25 cents on the dollar. But the currency declines took an amazing turn and made it just okay. I’m not sure that the risk we took was compensated by the return we got after the currency loss. We kept investing and kept doubling down, which I would say is an important tenet of value investing, and because of that some of the returns we had were stunning. So we did fine overall, but the point is, when investing in international markets, paying attention to currency is really important.

By and large, we hedge – even though it costs us – in most currencies back to U.S. dollar if we can. The sums of money we deal in are very large and posting collateral with currency hedging is in itself risky, so most people don’t pay attention to that. We spend a lot of time thinking about it and we’ve learned a lot over the years through mistakes in that area.

James Black…
Building on that, one thing that Brookfield has been able to do very well is take advantage of dislocations at different points in time and make transformational deals that either establish you in a new asset class or help you build critical mass. A couple that spring to mind are the World Financial Centre in the early nineties and Babcock & Brown post-financial crisis on the infrastructure side. Do you think we might see that kind of dislocation again, where Brookfield can step into the void?

Bruce Flatt…
Our view is always informed by what we see within our business. Overall, we see nothing that really says there is going to be a total meltdown in the economic situation of any country, particularly in the United States, which continues to do pretty well even though some people quote technical problems. In general, the global economy is operating quite well.

Despite that, we’re worried that we’re 11 years into an economic recovery, stock markets are at highs, bond markets are at highs and politics are crazy everywhere. I have the benefit of travelling country to country to talk to our people, and every one of them is focused on their own politics. If you just go through the list it’s very worrying, but while we’re cautiously investing in more defensive areas than we would have five years ago, it’s not because we see anything out there. It’s because our business is about ensuring we earn a reasonable return over the long term, and the enormous amounts of money are prepared so that we have capital when others don’t. To give you an indication of what we’re doing, we have more cash on the balance sheet than we ever have before and more capital available for institutional clients than ever before. We also bought Oaktree, which is a credit manager, and we partnered with the founders of it because we think at some point in time our balance sheet and relationships, combined with the capital behind their franchise, will allow us to do extremely well coming out of a market downturn.

JamesBlack…
Culture in successful companies is extremely important, and Brookfield has always had a culture of ownership among its employees, meaningfully investing in the stock of the company alongside shareholders. My view is that this differentiates you from other asset managers where staff is more transitory in nature and more focused on short-term compensation than long-term. As you’ve grown, how have you been able to retain that same culture that was in place when I was there, and how do you integrate—or not integrate—a new investment, a new asset class like Oaktree, into that culture?

Bruce Flatt…
It’s more difficult as you get larger for any organization to ensure that the culture stays the same. Despite that, I think the advantages of scale we have in place outweigh the disadvantages that come with the issues of size. We’ve tried to keep our principles, which are pretty simple: eat your own cooking, be invested alongside everyone that is there, and make money for your clients. The one thing I learned in life is that if you make money for your clients, they will come back for more. If we didn’t make money for you, James probably wouldn’t have invited me here. We’ve tried to keep it simple. People can make a lot of money with us over a long period of time if the company does really well.

With respect to Oaktree, it’s run by a man named Howard Marks—he’s what I’d call a legend in distressed investing. He and Bruce Karsh started the firm 24 years ago and still run it, and their record is exceptional. We visited them and said ‘we’d like to take the public out of the company and become your partner’. They looked at me and said ‘it’s the wrong time to sell, we don’t want to sell’. And we said ‘no, no. You’re not selling, you’re actually staying in. If you’re selling were not buying.

So we’re buying the public out, in a half cash, half Brookfield Asset Management shares deal, which we very seldom do. So they are coming along with us, the public market investors, and Howard, Bruce and their management team will own 40% of the franchise after the deal closes, so they will remain highly incentivized alongside of us to continue to build the business. Simply stated, our machine behind them should allow them to do more with what they have than what they could do on their own.

James Black…
… and will they give you some interesting client relationships as well that you don’t have access to today?

Bruce Flatt…
I think it will be additive both ways. We have an amazingly strong franchise for fundraising in the Middle East. For unusual reasons, we invest capital for virtually every sovereign plan and institutional client in every country in the Middle East. And they have, I’m quite sure, fewer relationships there than we have, and therefore we will be very helpful to them in that market. Howard’s been raising money in the U.S. for a long time and has an amazing track record, and I think his shine on us will help us a lot. So I think it will be additive both ways, and I think we can help them scale up their business in ways that they otherwise would not be able to do.

Website,

Tuesday, April 14, 2020

Do not follow fashion, follow value for big returns in long run, says Bruce Flatt


Do not follow fashion, follow value for big returns in long run, says Bruce Flatt

Another good article about Bruce Flatt and his investment philosophy...

Bruce Flatt, CEO of Brookfield Asset Management, says going against the crowd and maintaining a contrarian approach is often a very lucrative strategy in investing, if accomplished.

He also says companies should seek profitability rather than growth, because growth does not necessarily add value.

Brookfield Asset management is a leading global alternative asset management firm with a focus on real asset sectors of real estate, renewable power and infrastructure
.

Flatt says while most investors follow fashion, those who do not follow fashion but follow value tend to earn much greater returns in the long run.

He says there was never a secret recipe or a particular strategy that his firm followed over the years to become successful in real asset investing. It was based more on a value thesis, where his company tried to learn and develop a strategy that worked for it.

“The number one thing that I would say to anyone is that there’s never a right strategy in investing. It’s whatever strategy fits you and what you want to do. For us, though, we generally have always operated with a methodology where we try to walk away from the cliff. One should always look for opportunity away from where the crowd is going, and not go with the crowd. In real asset investing, that’s a very important lesson to learn,” he said in a presentation made at the Talk @ Google, whose video is available on YouTube.

Talking about the investment guidelines that his company developed and followed over the years, Flatt says it is important to identify places where companies have a competitive advantage and invest in those areas.

“It is best to always invest on a value basis with a goal of maximising return on capital and look to buy assets or find assets that have cash flow inherent in them or can be built within the business,” says he.

Measure success to know where you stand

Flatt says it is absolutely essential to measure success to know where you stand against competition. There are four things that can be looked at to evaluate this.

First, companies should measure success based on total return on capital over the long term, which would prevent them from making the mistake of looking at short-term objectives within the business.

Next, companies should try to encourage its people to take calculated risks, which should be compared with the return that one might get out of the investment.

To be successful, it is also important to sacrifice short-term profit, if necessary, to achieve long-term capital appreciation.

And lastly, companies should seek profitability rather than growth, because growth does not necessarily add value
.

Follow this business philosophy to become successful

Sharing his views on the business philosophy that one should follow, Flatt says it is important to build a business and all relationships based on integrity as running a business for the long term needs strong relationships, both outside the company and with the people within the business.

It is also important to attract and retain high-calibre individuals who can grow with the company over the long term and ensure that these individuals think and act like owners in all their decisions.

It is necessary to treat the client and shareholder money like it’s their own before making a business decision.

Keep business model very simple

Flatt feels it is crucial to keep the business model very simple.

Referring to his own company’s business model, he says they try to utilise their global reach to identify and acquire high-quality real assets on a value basis and finance them on a long-term, low-risk basis.

Further, they enhance cash flows and value of these assets through their leading operating platforms and source equity from clients seeking exposure to property and infrastructure returns. This strategy, Flatt says, should be repeated over and over with assets with similar cash flow characteristics.

Competitive advantage key to remain ahead

Revealing why they have been better than competitors, Flatt says it has been because they use competitive advantages in everything they do.

Although size of a company does not necessarily generate profitability, given the scale of their company, they have been able to use size as a differentiator.

The global businesses they have built over the years have enabled them to move capital to locations where it is scarce and allowed them to take ideas and turn them into actionable opportunities, Flatt says.

They have also been able to use global unrestricted funds, which have allowed them the freedom to seek value where available.

Also, people-enabled execution capabilities have given them a strategic advantage to be able to run the businesses and operate them efficiently.

“Often our investments are longer term and are more illiquid than others. So, our advantage is that we’re willing to be longer-term investors, and we’re willing to have something that’s illiquid versus what others might accept. Often they’re larger in size, and that’s not attainable by others. And most of the time, when we’re making investments, it’s not fashionable. Most investors follow fashion. If you cannot follow fashion and follow value, the returns will be much greater over the longer term,” he says.

Invest in real assets to generate strong returns

Flatt says real assets have a strong return profile to invest into, as they earn good cash-on-cash yields and can be contracted for longer durations. Also, cash flows adjust with inflation or by other means and assets are scarce and often appreciate in value.

The private nature of these assets ensures low volatility and the returns are far greater than other options available to institutions, he says.

Flatt feels it is a very good time to be a real estate investor, as institutional capital is growing exponentially and increasing percentages are being allocated to real assets due to the returns they offer.

“The most important things that are happening is that the institutional plans are putting more money into real assets. And if you look back to 2000, the percentage in their portfolios in general was 5%. Today, it's 25%. And we think that number will be 40% by 2030. And what's happening with that there's this therefore an exponential increase of money being taken out of equities and bonds going into these type of real assets as they can offer 6% to 20% returns,” he says
.

Things to watch out for before investing in real assets

Flatt offers some guiding principles which he says should be kept in mind before investing in real assets.

He believes investors should buy great quality assets even if one has to pay a little more for it.

Next, he suggests investing in assets assuming they will be owned forever, an approach that would enable investors to look at them with the long-term fundamentals involved.

Also, he feels while buying a real asset it is essential to buy it at less than the replacement cost. “It most often indicates value because the competitive product that will ultimately compete against you will cost more than what you paid. So you should be able to either earn a higher return or out price your competition during the investment. And that's probably the number one thing, which is why in our business what you're always trying to do is to move your capital to the places where others are not,” he says.

Flatt also warns investors to avoid misfinancing their assets as it is of utmost important to ensure surviving the market downturns.

While looking for investment opportunities investors should look to acquire assets where capital is scarce as it is the best indicator of the right time.

“In 2016, we bought a graphite electrode company in the United States out of bankruptcy. And at that time, the steel market was incredibly under stress. But we were able to purchase it and it was really only because there was nobody else in the market that would put capital into the steel industry at that point in time. We've now taken it public at eight times the price that we paid,” he says.

Flatt advises investors to keep a balance between being too positive or too negative while investing in real assets. He also feels investors have a tendency of getting too influenced with news media and stories which needs to be kept in check.

Flatt believes real estate businesses are difficult to operate but hard work and smooth execution can be a key to earning decent returns.

Avoid these mistakes while investing

Flatt thinks making mistakes is a very common thing in investment and it is important to learn quickly from them to avoid huge losses.

“It's not possible in investing not to make mistakes. So we try to limit the number of mistakes and try to limit their effect,” he says.

Flatt lists out some of the common mistakes that investors generally make.

According to Flatt, investors get attracted towards a bad business believing that it will be okay if acquired cheaply.

Also, often investors start too large in a new business or a market leading to losses later.

There are times when investors get the compensation incentive plans wrong and occasionally they are not as strict on the financial covenants in an up market as they should be.

There are also times when investors take on an undue development risk in unstable or new jurisdictions.
 
Various investment opportunities lie ahead

Flatt believes that the world around us is constantly changing and is continuously growing and evolving which has opened up various opportunities for investors.

There are significant retail real estate opportunities and the integration with retail and the internet will bring significant opportunities over the next 10, 15 years, he believes.

Secondly, there is a great opportunity in the renewable power industry as it has changed dramatically over the past 10 years.

Flatt also feels that natural gas revolution particularly in North America has resulted in changes across industries which is going to continue globally.

And also there are a number of real asset technologies that can be deployed to make operational improvements and enhancements within the businesses, says he.

Buy great investments and leave the rest to the power of compounding

Flatt concludes by saying that the most amazing thing that the investment world has is the compounding of return.

“The wealth that can be generated through compounding of returns is significant. It's amazing what it accomplishes if you don’t make too many mistakes or lose capital on the way through and you just keep compounding a return. And it really is an amazing concept in the world of investing,” he says.

Flatt finally advises investors to continue buying great investments and holding them for compounding returns.

“Don't pay taxes by selling them. And don't look for fashion when you make them,” he says.

Anupam Nagur, ETMarkets.com, April 17, 2019