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Thursday, March 28, 2024

Stephen Takacsy's Top Picks: March 28, 2024

Stephen Takacsy's Top Picks: March 28, 2024

Stephen Takacsy, president, CEO and CIO, Lester Asset Management

FOCUS: Canadian stocks 


MARKET OUTLOOK:

We continue to see a positive environment for stocks and bonds in 2024. We always believed inflation was “transitory” caused by global supply chain disruptions from the pandemic. Core inflation has since declined naturally to nearly two per cent as supply chains have normalized, not because of the rapid interest rate hikes by central banks. In fact, rate hikes contribute to inflation through a huge increase in shelter costs, particularly in Canada where there’s been massive immigration combined with a housing shortage. This is why central banks pivoted last fall and bonds rallied, with stocks following suit. The North American economy has been resilient despite higher rates and the job market remains strong with savings rates still high. So, we may be entering a “goldilocks” scenario where disinflation or even deflation occurs, allowing for rate cuts along with a still-growing economy. If the economy weakens too much, this will still be seen as good news because rate cuts would be even more aggressive.

While the bond market has fallen this year because of delayed rate cuts, we continue to invest in high-yielding short-term corporate bonds, which still trade at very attractive yields in the six to seven per cent range representing equity-like returns with very low risk. In Canadian equities, we are adding to our small/mid-cap stocks many of which are still very cheap as institutional flows out of Canada and retail fund redemptions decimated them over the past few years. Private equity firms have taken notice and have been acquiring Canadian companies at big premiums. Other bargains abound in large cap high dividend yielding sectors like telecom and energy infrastructure (Enbridge yields 7.6 per cent), and stocks in the beaten up renewable energy sector, like Boralex and Northland Power.

Stephen Takacsy's Top Picks

Stephen Takacsy, president, CEO and chief investment officer at Lester Asset Management, discusses his top picks: Pet Valu, MDA, and Boralex.

PET VALU (PET TSX)

Pet Valu is Canada’s largest specialty retailer of pet supplies with over 780 mostly franchised stores and 18 per cent share of the market. Industry growth has been driven by increased pet adoption rates and higher spending per pet because of the humanization and premiumization of pets. Pet Valu generates 22 per cent EBITDA (earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization) margins and strong free cash flow which they have been reinvesting into opening new stores and raising the dividend. Pet Valu has consistently beaten consensus and delivered double-digit organic growth since its IPO (initial public offer) in 2021. However, SSS (same-store sales) growth has slowed down after the post-pandemic boom and the stock has corrected from $42 to $32 creating a good buying opportunity.

The company is spending on three new state-of-the-art distribution centers in the Greater Toronto Area, Calgary, and Vancouver, which should help improve margins, and plan on opening 40 to 50 new stores per year, so strong organic growth. The stock is now trading at around 19 times 2024 price-to-earnings (versus 30 times before) which is very attractive considering double-digit EPS (earnings per share) growth should resume in 2025.

MDA (MDA TSX)

Is the old McDonald Detwiller and is the only pure-play space technology company in the world and a global leader in its field. Since the cost of launching satellites has plummeted over the past decade, there is now a whole new “space economy” developing around satellite-based telecommunication, earth observation data, and other space infrastructure, for which MDA is really well positioned. They are in three business segments: geo-intelligence, robotics, and satellite systems. MDA currently has a $3.1 billion backlog providing clear visibility for 20 per cent to 25 per cent EBITDA growth per year over the next three years.

This is driven by a $2 billion contract for Telesat’s Lightspeed broadband LEO constellation of 198 satellites expected to be financed by the Canadian government any week now. This is also driven by several other LEO (low earth orbit) constellations such as Apple’s Globalstar emergency connection and another as yet unnamed smartphone provider, possibly Google or Samsung. MDA has a technological lead over competitor having developed digital satellites which are more efficient and configurable, thus lowering operating costs for their customer. MDA was recently added to the TSX Composite Index yet is still a relatively unknown stock trading at under nine times 2024 EBITDA which is very cheap given its massive growth potential.

BORALEX (BLX TSX)

It is one of Canada’s leading renewable energy producers with a strong presence in Quebec, the U.S. and France. The company has long-term contracted power production agreements mostly in wind and solar. Boralex recently announced record results with 22 per cent growth in EBITDA and strong free cash flow generation. The company has a large pipeline of wind, solar, and storage projects, which in total are expected to more than double BLX’s production capacity over the next few years.

Valuations of IPPs have crashed over the past two years due to rising interest rates, project cost increases, funding needs, and in some cases dividend cuts. Boralex is well-financed and has a low payout ratio. Under $30 is a great entry point to buy the stock at a historically low multiple of around 9.5 times EBITDA, for a company that has a high-quality asset base, a robust pipeline of projects, and multi-decade tailwinds for growth. 


Stephen Takacsy's Past Picks

HIGH LINER FOODS (HLF TSX)

#1 supplier to retail channel in Canada, and #1 in US to food services. Sells under own name and private label. Seafood consumption low in NA, huge potential for growth. Revenue growth stalled with consumers cutting back on higher-priced items. In rally mode again. Huge free cashflow, buying back lots of shares, increased divvie by 30%, paying down debt. Dirt cheap at 8x PE. Insiders own 40%. Feels it will be sold down the road.

  • Then: $14.94
  • Now: $13.27
  • Return: -11%
  • Total Return: -7%

LOGISTEC (LGT.B TSX)

It is in the marine cargo handling business with over 60 ports in North America. It recently made a very big acquisition which gives it a very strong position in the Great Lakes area. Has had record results of $4 per share and trades at10X P/E. They have owned it for many years and it hasn't been this cheap in a long time. The other side of the business is in environmental services including soil/water remediation and water pipe repairs - they have a record backlog. 

Acquired by private equity. Likes the environmental space so much they parlayed proceeds into Canada's first Global Biodiversity Fund, comprised of about 40 stocks.

  • Then: $43.99
  • Now: $66.95
  • Return: 52%
  • Total Return: 53%

DEFINITY FINANCIAL (DFY TSX)

Very strong results recently. Premiums more than covered expenses. Raised dividend by 16%. Now allowed to lever balance sheet to make acquisitions. Growing faster than IFC, which is #1 in Canada. Trades at big discount (1.8x book value) to IFC (2.8x). Really good upside. 

Swiss Reinsurance just purchased 10% of company. Possible creeping takeover? DFY is either going to make acquisitions or be acquired. Good time to buy.

  • Then: $34.77
  • Now: $44.15
  • Return: 27%
  • Total Return: 29%

Total Return Average: 25%

Honorable Mention (Strong Buy)

Quarterhill Inc. (QTRH-T)

One of his biggest positions. Fantastic board, much-improved management team with wonderful expertise in a great space. Focused on driving shareholder value. Huge backlog. Should see improved margins. Insiders buying a lot of stock.

----------------------------------

Source

https://www.bnnbloomberg.ca/stephen-takacsy-s-top-picks-march-28-2024-1.2052989

https://stockchase.com/company/view/4762/LGTB-T


Tuesday, March 26, 2024

Highest Yielding Dividend Aristocrats To Buy Today

Highest Yielding Dividend Aristocrats To Buy Today


Dividend Aristocrats—S&P 500 companies that have consecutively increased dividends for 25 years or more—are excellent choices for consistent and reliable payouts. Companies in this prestigious group are favorites of income investors and those building their retirement nest eggs. 

Today, the S&P 500 Aristocrat index currently includes 67 companies, and to be perfectly honest, few of us have the time to go through the entire list to find out which ones pay the highest dividends. Thankfully, there are tools that investors can use to make the search easier. Even better, you have me to list the top three Aristocrats with the highest yields. So, let’s get to it. 

How I Screen For High-Yield Dividend Aristocrats

Barchart offers many features and functionality (most of them free) that can be used to take the pain out of stock selection. I used a previously prepared Dividend Aristocrats watch list for this selection and organized them by the highest yields using the stock screener. 

To screen for the highest-yielding Dividend Aristocrats, I begin by logging into Barchart.com and clicking “Watchlist” at the top of the website. Then, I select Aristocrats from the watchlist dropdown and click the “Div Yield” field to sort by dividend yield.

If you don't already have an Aristocrats watchlist, click “New Watchlist” and then add the symbols. You're also able to add several other filters to refine searches further. But I understand that people are busy, so let’s list the three Dividend Aristocrats with the highest yields, starting with number one: 

Amcor (AMCR)

First on our list of high-yielding Dividend Aristocrats is Amcor. This company specializes in flexible and rigid plastic packaging sold in EMEA and the Asia Pacific. The company’s global packaging solution has generated over $14.7 billion in sales, with over 218 production and distribution sites worldwide. Amcor provides packaging for various industries, including food and beverage, pharmaceuticals, and personal care. 

Amcor currently pays a $0.125 quarterly dividend or 50-cent forward annual rate, representing a 5.38% yield for AMCR stock based on its last trading price. This attractive yield is further compounded by a 104.17% 5-year dividend growth rate, albeit with a slightly high yet acceptable 72.37% payout ratio

3M Company (MMM)

There’s a big chance that people reading this have a 3M product somewhere in their home. The company operates as a multinational conglomerate that offers products across several industries, including automotive, electronics, health care, safety, manufacturing, transportation, and general consumer markets. 

3M Company is a known innovator with over 100,000 product patents, the newest of which is the Padded Automatable Curbside Recyclable (PACR) Mailer Material. This is the first paper-based padded and fully recyclable packaging material that can be slotted into qualified automated packaging machines for automation. PACR is lightweight, heat-sealable, durable, resists moisture penetration, and comes in various sizes. 

The company currently pays $6.04 in annualized dividends per share, per the latest increase in February 2024, which translates to a 5.76% yield for MMM. 

Given 3M’s struggles in 2023, full-year 2024 guidance sees adjusted EPS ending between $9.35 and $9.75, comfortably covering its annual payout. 

The company has increased dividend payments for 64 consecutive years, making it a Dividend Aristocrat and King. Further, 3M has also been paying dividends for over 100 years, ranking it among the few Dividend Zombies in the market. 

Realty Income Corp (O)

Realty Income Corp is one of the most recognizable Dividend Aristocrats today. It is a real estate investment trust that focuses on commercial property investments in the US and various parts of the world. As of 2024, the company has long-term agreements with over 15,450 properties worldwide, which it uses to fund further investments and pay out an unbroken string of monthly dividends for shareholders. 

Speaking of dividends, Realty Income recently increased its dividend, starting with the April 2024 payout. The new dividend is $0.2570 per share. For O stock, that translates to a 5.91% forward yield. 

The company has also increased dividends for 106 consecutive quarters, or over 26 years, and boasts a 4.3% compound annual dividend growth rate since 1994.

By law, REITs must pay 90% of their earnings to investors, and funds from operations, or FFO, is a more suitable metric for measuring a REIT’s capacity to pay dividends. If you're an O stock shareholder, you'll be happy to know that management expects 2024 normalized FFO and adjusted FFO to end between $4.17-$4.29 and $4.13-$4.21, respectively- more than enough to cover the dividend.

As a result, dividend payouts—and the expected quarterly dividend increases—are more or less assured for investors, making O an excellent and reliable Dividend Aristocrat. 

Final Thoughts

Investment doesn’t have to be a fancy word for“gambling.” Dividend Aristocrats are safe for investors with milder dispositions, and yet these stocks don’t preclude growth over the long run. Patience is a virtue, as they say, and the potential returns are even better when tempered with good stock picks.   

-------------------------------------
Source

https://www.barchart.com/story/news/25047419/highest-yielding-dividend-aristocrats-to-buy-today

Monday, February 12, 2024

Brookfield Asset Management to enter the INK Cdn Insider Index

Brookfield Asset Management to enter the INK Cdn Insider Index

----------------------------------------------------

Brookfield Asset Management (BAM) will be one of four Financials stocks joining the INK Canadian Insider (CIN) Index when it undergoes its quarterly rebalancing after the close on February 16th (read the rebalancing announcement at index.inkresearch.com). The old Brookfield Asset Management split into two companies on December 9, 2022. January 2nd morning report stock Brookfield Corporation (Sunny; BN) owns 75% of Brookfield Asset Management ULC which is the legacy asset management business of the old Brookfield. The new Brookfield Asset Management (BAM) owns the remaining 25% and has an Asset Management Services Agreement to provide services to Brookfield Asset Management ULC. 

On February 7th, BAM reported Q4 earnings of US$0.24 per diluted share (no comparative period is applicable). It also announced a quarterly dividend of US$0.38 per share, payable on March 28th to shareholders of record as of the close of business on February 29th. That represents a 19% increase from its Q4 dividend. The jump comes as total revenues at Brookfield Asset Management ULC inched higher in Q4 to US$1.130 billion from US$1.117 billion a year earlier. The Brookfield Asset Management ULC business appears to have a bit of momentum behind it. Fee-bearing capital at Brookfield Asset Management ULC stood at US$457 billion at the end of Q4, up 4% from Q3 and 9% from a year earlier. Asset classes under management include Credit, Real Estate, Infrastructure, Renewable Power & Transition, and Private Equity. Meanwhile, BAM's share price also has a bit of momentum, up 26.8% over the past three months. Insiders have also recently been net acquirers of stock via options, helping to nudge BAM into the INK CIN Index.

-------------------------------------------------

From August 31st to December 15th, three Brookfield Asset Management insiders acquired a total of 337,449 Class A Limited Voting Shares through options exercises at an average exercise price of US$14.02. 

Over the same period, the same insiders sold a total of 326,377 Class A Limited Voting Shares at an average price of $49.07. 

Brookfield Asset Management has above median ownership (direct & indirect holdings) by Officers and Directors compared to other large-cap stocks in the Financials sector according to SEDI filings as of February 11th, 2024. 

Brookfield Asset Management currently holds a sunny INK Edge outlook on the equally weighted V.I.P. criteria of valuations, insider commitment, and price momentum which places it in the top 10% of all stocks ranked. INK outlook categories are designed to identify groups of stocks that have the potential to out or underperform the market. However, any individual stock could surprise on the up or downside. As such, outlook categories are not meant to be stock-specific recommendations. 

For background on our INK Edge outlook, please visit our FAQ #3 at inkresearch.com. 

-----------------------------------------

Source

INK Research


Saturday, February 10, 2024

Brookfield Corporation Shareholders - Q4 2023

Brookfield Corporation Shareholders - Q4 2023

Overview

2023 was another excellent year for Brookfield. Following the shortly anticipated completion of our insurance acquisition, we will have raised $143 billion for our asset management business, one of our strongest years of fundraising ever. We also transformed our insurance solutions business into a major wealth provider, and our operating businesses powered resiliently through the economic uncertainty with strong results.

In addition to generating solid financial results, our strong liquidity position and differentiated access to capital enabled us to remain active on the investment front. In total, we invested over $55 billion at excellent values in 2023, and we expect to reap the rewards of these contrarian investments for years to come.

With short-term interest rates expected to follow long rates lower, it looks like 2024 will be a very good year for our overall business. We also expect to be more active on the monetization front as capital markets regain strength in conjunction with the normalization of the economic situation and the stabilization of interest rates. Market participants’ confidence in pricing in risk has increased, which has in turn improved the liquidity in the capital markets.

Geopolitics can always lead to heightened volatility, but this seems to have become the new normal. Our view is that owning businesses and assets that form the backbone of the global economy is a safe place to be in all markets. This resilience has been proven over decades, and we do not believe this will change.

Operating Results were Strong

Each of our businesses delivered strong results and resilient cash flows amidst the above-mentioned environment. These solid returns were underpinned by the high-quality assets and businesses that we own.

Financial Results

Distributable earnings (“DE”) before realizations were $4.2 billion or $2.66 per share for the year. This represents an increase of 12% per share over the prior year, after adjusting for the special distribution of 25% of our asset management business that we completed in December 2022. Earnings were supported by strong continued momentum in our asset management business, the scaling of our insurance solutions business, and the resilient performance of our operating businesses. Importantly, each of these businesses has significant embedded growth, leaving us well positioned heading into 2024.

AS AT AND FOR THE 12 MONTHS ENDED
DEC 31 ($US MILLIONS, EXCEPT PER SHARE AMOUNTS)
20192020202120222023CAGR
DE before realizations – Per share1

 

$ 1.27$ 1.51$ 1.89

$ 2.38

$ 2.66

20%

– Total1

1,895

2,330

2,993

3,825

4,223

22%

Distributable Earnings – Per share

1.79

2.74

3.96

3.25

3.03

14%

– Total

2,657

4,220

6,282

5,229

4,806

16%

Gross annual run rate of fees plus target carry

5,781

6,472

7,830

9,535

10,446

16%

Total assets under management

544,896

601,983

688,138

789,489

916,227

14%

See endnotes.

 

Asset Management – Our asset management business generated $649 million of distributable earnings in the quarter and $2.6 billion for the year. We benefited from strong fundraising across our flagship funds and complementary fund offerings. Against a more challenging fundraising backdrop, our fund strategies continued to resonate with our clients, leading to $93 billion of capital raised which, combined with the approximately $50 billion anticipated upon the closing of American Equity Life (“AEL”), brings the total to $143 billion. Highlights include the close of our largest ever private infrastructure strategy at $30 billion, our largest ever private equity strategy at $12 billion, the largest infrastructure debt fund ever raised globally by a sponsor at over $6 billion and strong initial fundraising for our latest flagship real estate and opportunistic credit funds. Fee-bearing capital ended the year at $457 billion, driving an increase in fee-related earnings of 6% compared to the prior year. Our fundraising outlook remains strong going into 2024, which should contribute to meaningful earnings growth for us.

Insurance Solutions – Our insurance solutions business generated distributable operating earnings of $253 million in the quarter and $740 million for the year. Earnings were supported by the continued growth in our asset base and strong performance in our investment portfolio. We closed the acquisition of Argo Group in the fourth quarter and originated $8 billion of annuity sales during the year, increasing our insurance assets to approximately $60 billion. By leveraging our investment origination platform, we were able to generate an average investment portfolio yield on our insurance assets of 5.5% and maintain a spread of approximately 2% over our average cost of capital. As at the end of 2023, annualized earnings in this business were over $900 million. We expect to close the acquisition of AEL shortly, which will grow our insurance solutions business to over $100 billion of assets and take annualized earnings to $1.3 billion. When combined with our retail wealth solutions platform, we now raise approximately $800 million a month from retail products for high-net-worth and mid-market clients. We remain on track to increase this capital source to $1.5 billion a month in 2024.

Operating Businesses – Our operating businesses delivered resilient cash flows, generating distributable earnings of $400 million in the quarter and $1.5 billion for the year. Cash distributions from our renewable power and transition, infrastructure and private equity businesses were supported by their strong growth in earnings. Our core real estate portfolio continues to outperform the broader market, with same-store net operating income growing by 7% compared to the prior year. Our office portfolio continues to capture tenant demand as we see no let up in a pronounced flight to quality from tenants. We signed over 15 million square feet of leases in the year at average net rents 19% higher than those expiring, and our leasing pipeline remains very robust. Our core retail portfolio is performing above pre-pandemic levels, with tenant sales exceeding $1,150 per square foot and 21% higher than 2019. Our strong relationships and reputation as a responsible borrower mean that our ability to finance and refinance our assets has also remained essentially unaffected by the tighter environment. In fact, all our 2023 debt maturities were successfully refinanced with no material impact on liquidity, and we expect the same to be the case in 2024. We maintain our conviction in our portfolio and are confident that as interest rates come down, we will start to see a tailwind in our real estate business and its earnings.

Monetization Activity

Amidst a more constrained market environment in 2023, we continued to see strong demand for the high-quality, cash-generative businesses and assets we own. During the year, we monetized over $30 billion of assets at strong valuations—substantially all transacting at values higher than our IFRS carrying values.

A few highlights of recently closed sales include these:

  • Westinghouse at an implied enterprise value of approximately $8 billion, returning a 6x multiple of capital and an IRR of approximately 60% to investors in our private equity fund and Brookfield Business Partners, our listed private equity entity.
  • An office asset in Brazil for approximately $300 million, generating an IRR of 17% and a multiple of capital of 3.4x in local currency.
  • A landmark mixed-use asset in Paris for approximately $1 billion, and a manufactured housing portfolio in the U.S. for over $300 million.

These sales generated strong returns, and when combined with the sales completed earlier in the year, resulted in $570 million of net realized carried interest being recognized into income in 2023. Accumulated unrealized carried interest stood at $10 billion at year end. The pool of carry-eligible capital grows larger every year as we continue to raise new and larger private funds. These funds will also contribute significant cash flows over time.

Balance Sheet and Liquidity

Our business is differentiated by our conservatively capitalized balance sheet, high levels of liquidity, and continued strong access to the capital markets. These strengths enable us to successfully refinance existing operations and support our continued growth.

We have one of the largest pools of discretionary capital globally, backed by our perpetual capital base of approximately $150 billion comprised of mostly liquid assets, with only a modest amount of long-duration corporate debt at the Corporation of $12 billion. In addition to this, we have significant deployable capital of over $120 billion, which includes approximately $5 billion of core liquidity at the Corporation and $25 billion of cash and short-term financial assets in our insurance solutions business.

In spite of credit conditions being tighter in 2023, we maintained open access to capital and executed on approximately $100 billion of financings across our business. For example, in our real estate business we completed approximately $30 billion of financings across more than 150 individual investments globally. With the tailwind we expect from improving credit markets and lower interest rates, our business is well positioned to deal comfortably with all of its debt maturities and invest confidently over the course of 2024.

This financial strength has also allowed us to continue to allocate capital opportunistically to share repurchases. In 2023, we reinvested excess cash flow back into our businesses and returned $1.1 billion to shareholders through regular dividends and share repurchases, with total share buybacks amounting to more than $600 million. We plan to accelerate our share repurchases and buy a further $1 billion of shares in the open market over the next few months if prices stay reasonable. If fully completed, this will add another $1 billion or $0.75± to each remaining share. We will also consider switching to a tender offer process if those shares are not readily available or if we decide to increase the size of the repurchases.

$1M Invested 30 Years Ago Is Worth Over $140M Today

Our stock price was strong in 2023, increasing 29%. As evidence of the returns that can be generated for investors, stock market results are shown in the chart below on a compound return basis over the past 30 years. For reference, $1 million invested 30 years ago in Brookfield Corporation is worth over $140 million today, representing an annualized return of 18%. More importantly, the intrinsic value of the business continues to grow, which should enable us to deliver strong results over the long term. Furthermore, we believe the intrinsic value of a BN share today is significantly above the current share price, which these returns are based on; this offers our shareholders a large margin of safety for investment at this point in time.

Compound Stock Market Performance of Brookfield Corporation

Years

Value of $1 Million Invested in BN

BN NYSE

S&P 500

10-Year U.S.

Treasuries

 

$

%

%

%

1

1,300,000

29

27

4

5

2,100,000

16

16

10

3,500,000

13

12

2

20

22,300,000

17

10

3

30

143,300,000

18

10

3

 

The above table is based on the stock price of Brookfield, not the value. As a reminder, Price is a function of supply and demand for the quoted shares at any point in time, which is often influenced by news of the day/month/year. This has always been true but is even more so today with the information overload we are all subject to. Value, on the other hand, is the net present value of future cash flows based on assumptions for growth of a business discounted back to the present at an appropriate risk-adjusted interest rate. The Price of a publicly traded security is rarely the same as the Value; sometimes it is lower and sometimes it is higher.

As investors in Brookfield, we encourage you to focus first and foremost on the Value of the business and the compounding of the returns of the business, rather than our share price. We understand that as a shareholder (and not being in the business day-to-day), you may not intuitively focus on the fact that you are a part owner of each of our assets and operations.

However, it is worth remembering that the daily movement in the quoted Price of our business is irrelevant to our operations, and a discount to Value ironically presents an excellent opportunity to add further value, without much work, to an asset- and cash-rich company like ours. By repurchasing shares at discounts to their true Value versus the Price, we add further Value to the company. Keep at this for a long period of time and the miracle of compounding takes care of the rest.

As opposed to Price, what we do have control over is Value—and as you know, we publish our view of Value regularly. Looking back over the last 20 years, the Value of our business has grown at a compound annualized return of 23%. A holder of one share started with a split-adjusted share valued at $2.53, today has Value of $82.29. Assuming each shareholder kept the distributions and registered them for dividend reinvestment plans, a shareholder has also received $62.33 of distributions of cash and securities before tax (with many of the distributions provided on a tax-free basis) over that time. The total Value received over the 20 years is $144.62 or a 57 times return on capital. This is the miracle of compounding.

Value and Distributions Per Share as at and for the year ended December 31

Year

Value2

Cumulative
Distributions
Received3

Total Value

 

Year

Value2

Cumulative
Distributions
Received3

Total Value

 

$

$

$

 

 

$

$

$

2004

2.53

0.14

2.67

 

2014

21.14

11.93

33.07

2005

3.30

0.34

3.64

 

2015

22.81

11.94

34.75

2006

3.93

0.69

4.62

 

2016

27.98

15.17

43.15

2007

4.83

1.81

6.64

 

2017

34.41

20.85

55.26

2008

8.83

1.31

10.14

 

2018

39.51

18.49

58.00

2009

13.05

2.33

15.38

 

2019

56.73

27.66

84.39

2010

16.64

3.73

20.37

 

2020

65.90

31.67

97.57

2011

18.22

3.96

22.18

 

2021

75.65

50.48

126.13

2012

19.97

5.62

25.59

 

2022

69.00

48.07

117.07

2013

20.08

9.25

29.33

 

2023

82.29

62.33

144.62

See endnotes.

 

Two Market Perspectives That Co-Exist

Short-term interest rates have crested on a global basis, and if the bond markets are to be believed, it appears that 2024 will see the beginning of a reduction of short-term rates. In the recent period of rate increases, high-quality assets and strong sponsors have maintained access to capital when it was not that easy for some to procure. As an example of this, we financed approximately $100 billion of assets and businesses in 2023. This is largely due to the quality of our assets, the low level of leverage we utilize, and the sponsorship support we provide. In this next phase for rates, access to capital for high-quality borrowers, assets and sponsors should only increase.

At the same time, for higher-leverage borrowers and those without a strong reputation, debt access has been—and will continue to be—constrained. The situation is most acute for borrowers who had floating rate debt, those with assets that were highly leveraged, or cases where a company was financed based on the belief that the business was going to grow into its cash flows at very high rates of return.

This environment provides exceptional opportunities for our lending businesses, both on the performing credit front and in opportunistic credit. We are seeing an increasing need for gap capital, and growing demand amongst borrowers for direct loans. In the next few years as loans come due, the demand for this capital should only grow. This opportunity exists because many loans over the past five years were written without covenants, so the loan maturity becomes the trigger point for default by the borrower. Sponsors that are over-leveraged or businesses that are not generating cash flow to cover interest costs will provide alternative lending opportunities.

The deployment potential, therefore, is significant for both our Brookfield infrastructure and real estate credit products, our new SocGen-Brookfield Senior loan fund, our Oaktree opportunistic fund and the Oaktree direct lending funds. In addition, there are substantial opportunities in our control-oriented private equity style funds and our hybrid funds for private equity, infrastructure, transition and real estate that will make these vintages of funds exceptional. This is largely the case because many would-be competitors do not have our access to equity to invest, debt to finance the assets, or both.

In summary, there are two perspectives on the markets that co-exist. The dividing line for us is often with regard to quality; there are assets which we will not buy or finance almost at any price, irrespective of capital structure or advertised return profile. On the other hand, there are presently many good assets and businesses that do not have access to debt or equity due to excess leverage, absence of strong sponsorship, or growth plans that are not fully funded. Many of these latter investment opportunities are potentially compelling, and we plan to provide strategic capital to companies that are underpinned by extremely high-quality assets, underlying businesses and cash flow, while earning strong returns.

The Backbone of the Global Economy Is Always Evolving

Our organization is built around building and operating the backbone of the global economy. We have found that it is possible to earn good returns in this area with moderate risk. By doing that for decades, the results can compound to very meaningful wealth. When a business can do so over long periods of time, it will be a success. Despite our having stuck with the same strategy for a very long time, it is most interesting to note how the world has evolved over this time, and how we have evolved with it.

Of the more than $900 billion of assets that we manage, nearly half are in sectors that did not exist 20 years ago. The contractual and inflation-protecting nature of these assets is similar, but the types of assets we dedicate our capital to today look different from those of years ago. It is not that we do not invest in many of the assets from the past, but more that the incremental dollars needed to build out capacity are required in new sectors.

In infrastructure, we historically invested in roads, bridges, pipelines, and electrical transmission. Today, our largest investments are in fiber connections for homes and businesses, telecom towers that carry 5G capacity, data centers for storage of cloud data capacity and AI learning, and manufacturing plants for semiconductors that power the devices we use. None of these sectors existed 20 years ago.

In energy, 30 years ago we were building and operating power plants powered by water, natural gas and coal. During the ensuing 20 years, we sold virtually all of our natural gas and coal facilities and focused on developing a renewables business, long before it was fashionable. As wind and then solar became economic, we dedicated vast resources to become one of the largest developers of wind and solar in the world. With the transition of the global economy to net zero over the next 30 years, the scale capital required to complete this shift will be dramatic and we are investing heavily in these new areas. And with exciting new areas on the horizon, our business should continue to evolve – battery technologies are starting to follow cost curves similar to the ones wind and solar followed, and hydrogen could become a real investment asset class.

In real estate, our business made its name on owning the backbone of cities around the world. But increasingly, new sectors are demanding our incremental capital. We are building life sciences properties and lab spaces for global pharma, studios for movie making, and residential and hospitality to provide accommodations for a vast, growing, wealthier population. In addition, the types of office and retail assets that are sought-after are constantly evolving. Today, companies seek office premises that foster collaboration, creativity and community among workers, while consumer buying behavior gravitates towards high-end luxury retail. Our premier properties dominate in these areas, and as a result, our space is in high demand.

In private equity, we have always acquired industrial businesses, and we still do. But increasingly, our focus is on areas where population is growing. We are now investing in the new backbone of the financial economy—for example, payment systems and online payment infrastructure. These businesses did not exist 20 years ago. We are increasingly investing around healthcare, as the requirements are so large. Entertainment and gaming are additional industries that will require vast backbone infrastructure.

The backbone of the global economy looks like it will continue to be an excellent place to invest for a very long time. We do, though, need to continuously evolve our focus as the investment required changes over long periods of time. The future looks like it will be greener, more digitally connected, increasingly diversified in sources for goods, and tilted towards the still-emerging markets. Rest assured, we will continue to remain focused on these themes and where we invest. We fully expect that 20 years from now we will still be investing in the backbone of the global economy, but it will likely look very different from what it is today.

We Are Aligned with the Largest and Fastest Growing Companies in the World

With the global surge in data demand, mega-cap technology companies have become the world's largest and fastest-growing businesses. Since 2020, the cloud computing segments of these companies have grown by over 30% annually, representing their highest growth segments and generating their highest margins. Demand for cloud computing from digitalization and the adoption of AI enabled tools is incentivizing these companies to continue investing heavily in their capabilities and capacity.

Over the last twelve months, the race to increase computing power has put a spotlight on the explosive growth in demand for computer chips. However, we believe most investors have yet to grasp that there has been an equivalent surge in the need for data centers and for securing an energy source required to power them.

We have significantly expanded our data center operations. Following the Data4 and Compass acquisitions, we now own and operate one of the largest global hyperscale data center platforms. Our operating footprint is across five continents and can give our hyperscale customers, who have global capacity requirements, a highly flexible and consistent offering in multiple geographies. Our platform includes substantial contracted growth pipelines, as well as the ability to grow through greenfield developments and additional platform acquisitions. Perhaps most uniquely, we have the ability to leverage Brookfield’s ecosystem to provide turn-key solutions that include renewable power connectivity.

Major cloud computing firms predominantly operate on clean energy and are rapidly moving towards their goal of 100% clean energy usage. Their consumption has grown by about 50% annually in recent years, making them the largest and fastest growing consumers of green power worldwide. The accelerating global trend of digitalization was already driving a step change in data center and electricity needs, but the power-intensive nature of AI is amplifying energy demand, and access to these forms of digital infrastructure are emerging as a significant bottleneck in the growth of cloud computing. For instance, incorporating AI into standard search processes can require up to five times more computing power.

It is widely estimated that global electricity consumption from data centers will increase to approximately 10% of total electricity demand by 2030 (from approximately 2% today). Combined with growing demands for electricity from the electrification of vehicles and industrials, demand is straining the capacity of the electrical grid. Distributed generation from renewable power sources provide the cheapest and most reliable form of 24/7 electricity production and is the solution to this growing electricity demand.

For the better part of a decade, we have been positioning our business to capitalize on these trends. By building a leading global development platform of data center, renewable power and real estate businesses, we are well positioned to meet the exponentially growing needs for this infrastructure for many years to come.

Closing

We remain committed to investing capital for you in high-quality assets that earn solid cash returns on equity, while emphasizing downside protection for the capital employed. The primary objective of the company continues to be generating increased cash flows on a per share basis and, as a result, higher intrinsic value per share over the longer term.

Thank you for your interest in Brookfield, and please do not hesitate to contact any of us should you have any suggestions, questions, comments, or ideas you wish to share.

Sincerely,

Bruce Flatt
Chief Executive Officer
February 8, 2024