The Illusion of
Market Indexes
I ran across this on Keith Richard’s blog on technical
analysis, Smartbounce…
“More than 20% of the S&P500 is comprised of 5
stocks: AAPL, MSFT, FB, AMZN, GOOGL. The NASDAQ’s top 5 stocks, making up some
40% of the index, are also AAPL, MSFT, FB, AMZN, GOOGL”.
This is why I largely ignore the market indexes when evaluating the
current state of the market. These stocks have become so large they have become
in effect commodities. All of the institutional money in the markets pour into
them lemming like and it isn’t always for fundamental reasons. To keep your job
on wall street, its important to do what everybody else is doing and in so
doing you keep your job. Institutionalized thinking invests in institutions.
When the markets turn as they eventually will, all of these guys will try to
leave out the same door…all at once. Markets can go down harder and faster than
they go up. Just a word to the wise.
Rather than focus on the market indexes, try paying attention to your own stock portfolio. How is it behaving? Has it been eroding away while the SP500 continues to churn up? Getting a bead on what is happening to your own investments can be a good way of getting information on what is happening in the markets as a whole. In my own portfolio, Open Text (OTEX) has been consolidating for a year now, it just put in a lower top in late October. Descartes Systems Group (DSG) has dropped dramatically last week. These are both tech stocks. Is the underlying market weakening here? I wonder...Is there any market rotation going on? As the indexes continue to surge up, fed on their own mathematics and momentum, money is often siphoned out some of the overbought sectors. Is that money being allocated to more attractive opportunities elsewhere? Maybe to market sectors which present a more value added proposition?
It's important to be an individual in a crowd and think for yourself. Especially when investing in the stock market. Consider contrarian possibilities. Tune out the media. They have no clue and even if they did I doubt they would inform you. Try to emulate a Howard Marks, and manage your risk appropriately. Investing in the stock market is an art form, not a science.
Rather than focus on the market indexes, try paying attention to your own stock portfolio. How is it behaving? Has it been eroding away while the SP500 continues to churn up? Getting a bead on what is happening to your own investments can be a good way of getting information on what is happening in the markets as a whole. In my own portfolio, Open Text (OTEX) has been consolidating for a year now, it just put in a lower top in late October. Descartes Systems Group (DSG) has dropped dramatically last week. These are both tech stocks. Is the underlying market weakening here? I wonder...Is there any market rotation going on? As the indexes continue to surge up, fed on their own mathematics and momentum, money is often siphoned out some of the overbought sectors. Is that money being allocated to more attractive opportunities elsewhere? Maybe to market sectors which present a more value added proposition?
It's important to be an individual in a crowd and think for yourself. Especially when investing in the stock market. Consider contrarian possibilities. Tune out the media. They have no clue and even if they did I doubt they would inform you. Try to emulate a Howard Marks, and manage your risk appropriately. Investing in the stock market is an art form, not a science.
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