A Return to Value
We are currently going through the second market correction
this year. The first one occurred in February. This second correction is deeper
of course and scarier. Corrections are a healthy part of the market process and
they occur largely to clean up the excesses of the previous upswing. The market
at its core is no more than a complicated thought form and the energy within it,
is made of all the various market participants. When the market goes up
strongly people get bullish and feed off of each other’s energy (the fear of missing
out on easy money). They will climb over each other in their desire to buy
stocks. They will reach and put in a higher bid in their zest to buy and own
shares. A premium is put on the future growth potential of companies as people
get increasingly bullish about the prospects of the future. When this happens
things can get sloppy and overdone on the upside and it reaches a point where
everybody who could buy has already bought and a correction ensues to siphon
off the excesses of the previous bull run. (see the blogposts about the Speculator's Edge for more insight into the nature of the marketplace.)
But as I mentioned earlier, this is the second correction this
year. That is rare and I have a feeling the inner workings of the market are
going through a pivotal change in their nature. The market is chameleon-like in
its essence and as time goes by it changes and morphs into something it wasn’t
before. We have gone through an incredible period since the 2008/2009 financial
crisis. The powers that be had to pump an incredible amount of liquidity into
the financial system to offset the damage inflicted by the financial crisis.
Almost all of that money went into the stock market (especially the U.S. market).
But the Fed has had to put themselves in so much debt in creating all this
liquidity that they now find themselves forced to siphon it back out of the
market.
Couple that fact with the rare occurrence of two market
corrections in one year and I think a changing of the guard is occurring in the marketplace.
Growth stocks will no longer be given a premium valuation for their earnings potential. As there is less money sloshing around in the system, investors will
be more careful in committing their funds to investments. They are liable to
become more value orientated. Value investing has under-performed Growth
investing since 2008/2009. That is a market anomaly. The reverse is usually true.
Once this correction runs its course I believe investors
will be looking out on a new world. One in which value will again regain the
investing mantle it has given up to growth over the last decade. People will be
more careful with their investment dollars because they will have less of them
to invest….The way I see it anyway…
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