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Tuesday, March 22, 2022

[Book Notes] The Outsiders: Eight Unconventional CEOs and Their Radically Rational Blueprint for Success

[Book Notes] The Outsiders: Eight Unconventional CEOs and Their Radically Rational Blueprint for Success

Preface & Introduction

Focusing on Per Share Value

The metric that the press usually focuses on is growth in revenues and profits. It’s the increase in a company’s per share value, however, not growth in sales or earnings or employees, that offers the ultimate barometer of a CEO’s greatness. It’s as if Sports Illustrated put only the tallest pitchers and widest goalies on its cover.

Impact of Asset Allocation

Buffett stressed the potential impact of this skill gap [CEOs not being trained in asset allocation], pointing out that “after ten years on the job, a CEO whose company annually retains earning equal to 10 percent of net worth will have been responsible for the deployment of more than 60 percent of all the capital at work in the business.” [pg xiii]

Overview: Things CEOs Should Know

Call it Singletonville, a very select group of men and women who understood, among other things, that:

  • Capital allocation is a CEO’s most important job.

  • What counts in the long run is the increase in per share value, not overall growth or size.

  • Cash flow, not reported earnings, is what determines long-term value.
  • Decentralized organizations release entrepreneurial energy and keep both costs and “rancor” down.

  • Independent thinking is essential to long-term success, and interactions with outside advisers (Wall Street, the press, etc.) can be distracting and time-consuming.

  • Sometimes the best investment opportunity is in your own stock.

  • With acquisitions, patience is a virtue…as is occasional boldness.

Outsiders are Foxes, not Hedgehogs

Isaiah Berlin, in a famous essay about Leo Tolstoy, introduced the instructive contrast between the “fox,” who knows many things, and the “hedgehog,” who knows one thing but knows it very well. Most CEOs are hedgehogs — they grow up in an industry and by the time they are tapped for the top role, have come to know it thoroughly. There are many positive attributes associated with hedgehogness, including expertise, specialization, and focus.

The best CEOs are the best investors

The business world has traditionally divided itself into two basic camps: those who run companies and those who invest in them. The lessons of these iconoclastic CEOs suggest a new, more nuanced conception of the chief executive’s job, with less emphasis placed on charismatic leadership and more on careful deployment of firm resources.

Greedy when others are fearful

The times [1974–1982, a period that “featured a toxic combination of an external oil shock, disastrous fiscal and monetary policy, and the worst domestic political scandal in the nation’s history”], like now, were so uncertain and scary that most managers sat on their hands, but for all the outsider CEOs it was among the most active periods of their careers — every single one was engaged in either a significant share repurchase program or a series of large acquisitions (or in the case of Tom Murphy, both). As a group, they were, in the words of Warren Buffett, very “greedy” while their peers were deeply fearful. [pg 7, Introduction]

Self-reliance and cash flow

Scientists and mathematicians often speak of the clarity “on the other side” of complexity, and these CEOs — all of whom were quantitatively adept (more had engineering degrees than MBAs) — had a genius for simplicity, for cutting through the clutter of peer and press chatter to zero in on the core economic characteristics of their businesses.

Chapter 1: Tom Murphy and Capital Cities Broadcasting

A lot of little decisions

As [Tom] Murphy told me, “The business of business is a lot of little decisions every day mixed up with a few big decisions.” [pg 17]

COO CEO partnership

Theirs was an excellent partnership with a very clear division of labor. Burke [COO] was responsible for daily management of operations, and Murphy [CEO] for acquisitions, capital allocation, and occasional interaction with Wall Street. [pg 18]

One reason to acquire

The core economic rationale for the deal was Murphy’s conviction that he could improve the margins for ABC’s TV stations from the low thirties up to Capital Cities’ industry-leading levels (50-plus percent). [pg 19]

Hire the best and leave them alone

In the Capital Cities culture, the publishers and station managers had the power and prestige internally, and they almost never heard from New York if they were hitting their numbers. It was an environment that selected for and promoted independent, entrepreneurial managers. The company’s guiding human resource philosophy, repeated ad infinitum by Murphy, was to “hire the best people you can and leave them alone.” As Burke told me, the company’s extreme decentralized approach “kept both costs and rancor down.” [pg 23]

Investing in the right things in big ways, cut costs everywhere else

As Burke [COO] said in describing his early years in Albany, “Murphy delegates to the point of anarchy.”

Increase autonomy to lower turnover

Burke recalls Smith saying, “The system in place corrupts you with so much autonomy and authority that you can’t imagine leaving.” [pg 27]

Funding acquisitions with debt

Murphy also frequently used debt to fund acquisitions, once summarizing his approach as “always, we’ve … taken the assets once we’ve paid them off and leveraged them again to buy other assets.” [pg 27]

Acquisition rules, heuristics, and happy negotiations

Acquisitions were far and away the largest outlets for the company’s capital during Murphy’s tenure.

He was known for his sense of humor and for his honesty and integrity.

[Tom] Murphy was a master at prospecting for deals. He was known for his sense of humor and for his honesty and integrity. Unlike other media company CEOs, he stayed out of the public eye (although this became more difficult after the ABC acquisition). These traits helped him as he prospected for potential acquisitions. Murphy knew what he wanted to buy, and he spent years developing relationships with the owners of desirable properties. He never participated in a hostile takeover situation, and every major transaction that the company completed was sourced via direct contact with sellers, such as Walter Annenberg of Triangle and Leonard Goldenson of ABC.

Murphy knew what he wanted to buy, and he spent years developing relationships with the owners of desirable properties.

Bennett this avuncular, outgoing exterior, however, lurked a razor-sharp business mind. Murphy was a highly disciplined buyer who had strict return requirements and did not stretch for acquisitions — once missing a very large newspaper transaction involved three Texas properties over a $5 million difference in price. Like others in this book, relied on simple but powerful rules in evaluating transactions. For Murphy, that benchmark was a double-digit after-tax return over ten years without leverage. As a result of this pricing discipline, he never prevailed in an auction, although he participated in many. Murphy told me that his auction bids consistently ended up at only 60 to 70 percent of the eventual transaction price.

Humility in management

Phil meek told me a story about a bartender at one of the management retreats who made a handsome return by buying Capital Cities stock in the early 1970s. When an executive later asked why he had made the investment, the bartender replied, “I’ve worked at a lot of corporate events over the years, but Capital Cities was the only company where you couldn’t tell who the bosses were.” [pg 34]

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Chapter 2: Henry Singleton and Teledyn

When to acquire, when to stop

[Henry Singleton bought 130 companies between 1961 and 1969 almost exclusively with Teledyne’s pricey stock.

Cash flow focus (again)

In another departure from conventional wisdom, Singleton eschewed reported earnings, the key metric on Wall Street at the time, running his company instead to optimize free cash flow. He and his CFO, Jerry Jerome, devised a unique metric that they termed the Teledyne return, which by averaging cash flow and net income for each business unit, emphasized cash generation and became the basis for bonus compensation for all business unit general managers. [pg 44]

“No one has ever bought in shares as aggressively.”

The conventional wisdom was that repurchases signaled a lack of internal investment opportunity, and they were thus regarded by Wall Street as a sign of weakness. Singleton ignored this orthodoxy, and between 1972 and 1984, in eight separate tender offers, he bought back an astonishing 90 percent of Teledyne’s outstanding shares. As Munger says, “No one has ever bought in shares as aggressively.”

Not the right thing, but the right thing at the right time

In the words of longtime [Teledyne] board member Faye Sarofim, Singleton believed “there was a time to conglomerate and a time to deconglomerate.” [pg 50]

Optionality & priorities

“If everyone’s doing them…”

When Cooperman asked [Singleton] about them [trendy large share repurchases], Singleton responded presciently, “If everyone’s doing them, there must be something wrong with them.”

“If everyone’s doing them, there must be something wrong with them.”

Warren Buffett & Henry Singleton: Peas in a pod

Many of the distinctive tenets of Warren Buffett’s unique approach to managing Berkshire Hathaway were first employed by Singleton at Teledyne. In fact, Singleton can be seen as a sort of porto-buffett, and there are uncanny similarities between these two virtuoso CEOs, as the following list demonstrates.

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Chapter 3: Bill Anders and General Dynamics

Bill Anders’ turnaround plan for General Dynamics

Rationality rules

Anders made the rational business decision [to sell General Dynamic’s F-16 business to Lockheed], the one that was consistent with growing per share value, even though it shrank his company to less than half its former size and robbed him of his favorite perk as CEO: the opportunity to fly the company’s cutting-edge jets. This single decision underscores a key point across the CEOs in this book: as a group, they were, at their core, rational and pragmatic, agnostic and clear-eyes. They did not have ideology. When offered the right price, Anders might not have sold his mother, but he didn’t hesitate to sell his favorite business unit.

This single decision underscores a key point across the CEOs in this book: as a group, they were, at their core, rational and pragmatic, agnostic and clear-eyes.

[pg 68]

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Chapter 4: John Malone and Tele-Communications Inc (TCI)

Accurate, not precise. Settler, not pioneer.

Applying his engineering mind-set [to investment projects], Malone looked for no-brainers, focusing only on projects that had compelling returns. Interestingly, he didn’t use spreadsheets, preferring instead projects where returns could be justified by simple math. As he once said, “Computers require an immense amount of detail… I’m a mathematician, not a programmer. I may be accurate, but I’m not precise.”

Heuristics for quick, reliable decisions

He was also, however, a value buyer, and he quickly developed a simple rule that became the cornerstone of the company’s acquisition program: only purchase companies if the price translated into a maximum multiple of five times cash flow after the easily quantifiable benefits from programming discounts and overhead elimination had been realized. This analysis could be done on a single sheet of paper (or if necessary, the back of a napkin). It did not require extensive modeling or projections.

Save, then buybuybuy

With her board, she subjected all potential transactions to a rigorous, analytical test. As Tom Might summarized it, “Acquisitions needed to earn a minimum 11 percent cash return without leverage over a ten-year holding period.” Again, this seemingly simple test proved a very effective filter, and as Might says, “Very few deals passed through this screen. The company’s whole acquisition ethos was to wait for just the right deal.”

Connecting with Buffett

The decision to welcome Buffett into the fold [on the board of Washington Post] was highly independent and unusual one at the time. In the mid-1970s, Buffett was virtually unknown. Again, the choice of a mentor is a critically important decision for any executive and Graham chose unconventionally and extraordinarily well. As her son Donald has said, “Figuring out this relatively unknown guy was a genius was one of the less celebrated, best moves she ever made.”

“Should you find yourself in a chronically leaking boat, energy devoted to changing vessels is likely to be more productive than energy devoted to patching leaks.” — Warren Buffett

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Chapter 6: Bill Stiritz and Ralson Purina

Simple buying

[Bill Stiritz’s] protege, Pat Mulcahy, who would later run the business [Ralston Purina], described Stiritz’s approach to the seminal Energizer acquisition: “When the opportunity to buy Energizer came up, a small group of us met at 1:00 PM and got the seller’s books. We performed a back of the envelope LBO model, met again at 4:00 PM and decided to bid $1.4 billion. Simple as that. We knew what we needed to focus on. No massive studies and no bankers.” Again, Stiritz’s approach (similar to those of Tom Murphy, John Malone, Katherine Graham, and others) featured a single sheet of paper and an intense focus on key assumptions, not a forty-page set of projections.

“Leadership is analysis.”

Stiritz was fiercely independent, and actively disdained the advice of outside advisers. He believed that charisma was overrated as a managerial attribute and that analytical skill was a critical prerequisite for a CEO and the key to independent thinking: “Without it, chief executives are at the mercy of their bankers and CFOs.” Stiritz observed that many CEOs came from functional areas (legal, marketing, manufacturing, sales) where this sort of analytical ability was not required Without it, he believed they were severely handicapped. His counsel was simple: “Leadership is analysis.”

Chapter 8: Warrenn Buffett and Berkshire Hathaway

You shape your houses and then your houses shape you. — Winston Churchill

When Buffett became Buffett

Fear of inflation was a constant theme in Berkshire’s annual reports throughout the 1970s and into the early 1980s. The conventional wisdom at the time was that hard assets (gold, timber, and the like) were the most effective inflation hedges. Buffett, however, under Munger’s influence and in a shift from [Benjamin] Graham’s traditional approach, had come to a different conclusion. His contrarian insight was that companies with low capital needs and the ability to raise prices were actually best positioned to resist inflation’s corrosive effects.

Patience…(2 years)…pounce!

After the Capital Cities transaction [1986], he [Buffett] did not make another public market investment until 1989, when he announced that he had made the largest investment in Berkshire’s history: investing an amount equal to one-quarter of Berkshire’s book value in the Coca-Cola Company, purchasing 7 percent of its shares.

Big & lumpy over smaller & smooth

Over time, Buffett evolved an idiosyncratic strategy for his insurance operations that emphasized profitable underwriting and float generation over growth in premium revenue. This approach, wildly different from most other insurance companies, relied on a willingness to avoid underwriting insurance when pricing was low, even if short-term profitability might suffer, and, conversely, a propensity to write extraordinarily large amounts of business when prices were attractive.

Being a CEO has made me a better investor, and vice versa. — Warren Buffett

Concentration can decrease risk

“We believe that a policy of portfolio concentration may well decrease risk if it raises, as it should, both the intensity with which an investor thinks about a business and the comfort level he must feel with its economic characteristics before buying into it.” [Warren Buffett]

Two interesting Buffett trading trends

“Hire well, manage little”

He [Buffett] summarizes this approach to management as “hire well, manage little” and believes this extreme form of decentralization increases the overall efficiency of the organization by reducing overhead and releasing entrepreneurial energy.

Warren is mad chill

Warren wrap-up: quality matters

All of this adds up to something much more powerful than a business or investment strategy. Buffett has developed a worldview that at its core emphasizes the development of long-term relationships with excellent people and businesses and the avoidance of unnecessary turnover, which can interrupt the powerful chain of economic compounding that is the essence of long-term value creation.

What makes him a leader is precisely that he is able to think through things himself. — William Deresiewicz

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Chapter 9: Radical Rationality

How to be an Outsider

Always Do the Math

The Outsiders Compared

The Outsiders Checklist


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Source

https://medium.com/@KyleEschenroeder/book-notes-the-outsiders-eight-unconventional-ceos-and-their-radically-rational-blueprint-for-757820036293

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