Tim Regan’s Top Picks for April 20, 2026
Tim Regan, Managing Director, Kingwest & Company
Focus: North American equities
MARKET OUTLOOK:
The underlying economy is more resilient than thought. Geopolitics are dominating for now, driving volatility.
The pullback has made valuations more attractive. The S&P 500’s forward price-to-earnings multiple stood at 20.3 TIMES at the end of March. Exclude the Magnificent Seven and that multiple drops below the 17.5 times ten-year average. Valuations are reasonable. The opportunity, when clarity returns, is significant.
The Canadian economy is soft. GDP contracted 0.6 per cent in the fourth quarter. The January monthly reading showed just 0.1 per cent growth. Employment gains from late 2025 were largely reversed in the first two months of 2026, pushing unemployment to 6.7 per cent in February. Core inflation is close to two per cent, but rising gasoline prices will likely push headline inflation higher in coming months.
The OECD projects the war in Iran will add only 0.3 percentage points to Canadian inflation. As a result, bond yields have barely budged, U.S. inflation expectations are up 0.5 per cent and the 10-year bond yield is up 0.4 per cent.
Ongoing trade uncertainty with the United States is inhibiting businesses from making long-term decisions. Capital investment is soft and will likely remain so until Mark Carney reaches some agreement with our largest trading partner. Keep in mind that trade accounts for roughly 25 per cent of Canada’s GDP. Three-quarters of that trade is with the United States.
The United States is no longer the victim of oil shocks as it used to be. It’s a net exporter of petroleum products. The higher oil price is boosting profits across the energy sector, in both the U.S. and Canada.
U.S. GDP grew 0.5 per cent in the last quarter of 2025, below expectations. The government shutdown reduced annualized growth by roughly 1.5 percentage points. The U.S. Congressional Budget Office has increased its GDP growth projection to 2.4 per cent for 2026 and bumped its inflation forecast to 2.7 per cent, primarily due to higher gasoline prices assumed through to year-end.
The conflict has put any central bank interest rate cuts on hold. The higher oil price is making policymakers cautious. This is a supply-side shock and a relative price shock, which may be temporary. It is not driven by structural excess demand or excessive credit creation.
Beyond the conflict, the path of interest rates depends on two things: whether the labour market weakens materially, and whether the oil shock intensifies or fades. The new U.S. Federal Reserve Chair, Kevin Warsh, takes over in June. Interest rate changes are probably off the table until then.
TOP PICKS:
Allegion PLC (ALLE NYSE)
Allegion is an American company in practice, though headquartered in Dublin for tax reasons.
The market sees a mature lock-and-hardware company growing revenue mid-single digits. A boring building-products business. We see something different.
Allegion’s products are specified into building plans during the design phase. Once a Schlage lock or Von Duprin exit device is written into blueprints for a hospital or school, switching is extremely difficult and expensive. Building codes, fire safety regulations, and accessibility standards lock in the installed base. Nearly half the revenue comes from aftermarket — parts, service, and credential renewals. The switching costs are high. The brands date back over a century.
The exciting part. Allegion is in the middle of a transition from mechanical hardware to electronic access control and software. Electronics already account for over 30 per cent of revenue and are growing at roughly double the rate of the legacy business.
Each electronic lock sold pulls recurring software and credential revenue with it. Margins are expanding as the mix shifts. The earnings power in five years looks materially different from the results today.
Allegion is priced as a building-products company today. It is becoming a security platform with recurring revenue and embedded pricing power. The likely consequence: higher earnings and a higher valuation.
Colliers (CIGI NASD)
Colliers International is a global leader in real estate services, investment management services and engineering services with a market capitalization of US$8.4 billion. Colliers operates through three main platforms:
Real estate services is the company’s largest and historical core business. The core business is transactional services like leasing and capital markets, but it has strategically expanded into recurring revenue services such as property management, valuation, and project management.
Investment management services, operating as Harrison Street Asset Management, manages $103.3 billion. It specializes in alternative “real assets” driven by long-term demographic trends, such as student housing, senior living, and infrastructure. This is a significant source of high-margin, recurring revenue to the company.
Engineering services focuses on infrastructure and engineering consulting. Colliers plans to double the size of this division, current revenue about $1.5 billion, within five years, capitalizing on the robust increase in planned infrastructure projects.
As in all business, Colliers operates in a highly competitive landscape. Colliers differentiates itself through its entrepreneurial culture and global network and aggressive acquisition strategy.
The company’s strategic emphasis on growing its recurring service lines has transformed it into a more stable and resilient business, capable of navigating economic cycles while driving value for its clients and shareholders.
Colliers’ Business Model
An integral part of Colliers business model is its “partnership model. The company acquires leading firms and allows the senior leadership teams to remain as significant minority shareholders in the combined entity.
Over the next two to three years we expect Colliers to earn $13 cash earnings per share as engineering and design drives growth, implying $250 stock price (57 per cent upside)
EQB (EQB TSX)
A leading digital financial services company with $142 billion in combined assets under management and administration, as of Jan. 31, 2026.
It offers banking services through Equitable Bank, a wholly owned subsidiary and Canada’s seventh largest bank by assets.
In December they did a deal for PC Financial.
Partnering with management teams that act like owners pays dividends even after they’re longer with us. Former CEO Moor’s final deal will drive EQB’s growth for years to come.
PC Financial is a fantastic fit that will allow EQ Bank to offer a credit card to its existing 800,000 banking customers, offer banking services to PC’s 2.5 million credit card customers while lowering funding costs for the $4.4B of card receivables.
At the price EQB paid none of the strategic benefits or planned synergies are required for this deal to make financial sense. EQB paid 9.3 times pre cost synergies or 7.1 times post.
- EQB paid $905m for Canada’s seventh largest card portfolio with $4.4B receivables.
- $175m cash.
- $625m equity / 7.2m shares (17 per cent of EQB), four-year lock-up.
- $105m integration costs (I’ve included this expense in the purchase price…impacting the headline price to book and the price to earnings calculation… EQB didn’t).
- 1.3 times book value.
- 12-year exclusive agreement allowing EQB access to Loblaw’s retail channels to market its products.
- 2.5m cardholders.
- 17m PC optimum loyalty members.
- 600 ATMs rebranding to EQ Bank.
- 180 in-store Loblaw pavilions rebranding to EQ Bank.
- Loblaw receives two board seats and plans to increase its ownership to 25 per cent over time.
- EQB’s non-interest income jumps to 32% of revenue from 14 per cent (compared to RBC at approximately 50 per cent and TD at approximately 45 per cent).
We see a value of $160 per share out two years.
PAST PICKS: NOV. 19, 2025
Strathcona (SCR TSX)
Then: $42.81
Now: $36.63
Return: -14%
Total Return: 11%
Quebecor (QBR.B TSX)
Then: $52.40
Now: $56.19
Return: 7%
Total Return: 9%
Blackstone (BX NYSE)
Then: US$138.65
Now: US$129.81
Return: -6%
Total Return: -5%
Total Return Average: 5%
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Source
https://www.bnnbloomberg.ca/markets/2026/04/20/tim-regans-top-picks-for-april-20-2026/
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