Taking the Market's Temperature on this Weekend of November 14-15
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My RIF topped out in late May/ early June, and bottomed in mid September and has since been steadily climbing back. What does the ratio-based McClellan Summation Index have to say about the state of the market on this weekend of Nov 14-15?
Your portfolio's trajectory this year mirrors the exact breadth cycle tracked by the NYSE Ratio-Adjusted McClellan Summation Index (RASI).
Heading into this weekend of November 14–15, 2026, the breadth data paints a picture of a market that has successfully cleared an intermediate washout, recovered into positive territory, and is now testing whether it has enough broad participation to sustain a major new leg higher.
1. How Your Portfolio Timeline Maps to 2026 Breadth
The May/June Top: In mid-May 2026, Tom McClellan highlighted that the NYSE RASI stalled right around the critical +500 escape-velocity threshold as the McClellan Oscillator rolled over below zero. Failing to clear +500 decisively signaled that the spring advance lacked the broad liquidity needed to power straight through the weaker May–October seasonal window.
The September Bottom: By late September 2026, the correction pushed the NYSE RASI down to roughly -522. In McClellan’s framework, readings below -500 represent a deep, washed-out oversold condition sufficient to mark the end of an ordinary intermediate correction within a longer-term uptrend. That September breadth washout aligns directly with your portfolio's mid-September trough.
The Autumn Recovery: Since that late-September low, broad market participation has steadily repaired itself, lifting the Summation Index out of deep negative territory and back above the zero line.
2. Where the Indicator Stands This Weekend (Close of Nov. 13, 2026)
Because the RASI is a cumulative running total of the daily Ratio-Adjusted McClellan Oscillator, watching both the index level and its daily directional engine tells you what is happening under the hood:
(Note: A sharp divergence exists between sectors right now—while heavy AI, data center, and semiconductor stocks experienced a post-election shakeout in early November that spiked Nasdaq new 52-week lows, broader NYSE-listed value, dividend, and interest-rate-sensitive names have held up far better, keeping the NYSE Summation Index in positive territory.)
3. The Key Takeaway for the Weeks Ahead
The ratio-adjusted summation data is giving a constructive, mid-recovery signal, with one clear benchmark to watch:
The +500 "Escape Velocity" Test: In McClellan’s methodology, a rally off a deep negative reading (like September's -522) proves it has true institutional sponsorship when the RASI pushes decisively above +500. Sitting in the mid-200s right now means the recovery is healthy and intact, but still in its proving phase. If the RASI rallies above +500 over the coming weeks, it signals strong breadth tailwinds carrying into early 2027. Conversely, if it stalls below +500 and rolls over again—just as it did in May—it warns that the advance remains selective and vulnerable to chop.
Sector Rotation Tailwinds: Because the recent November selling pressure has been concentrated in high-multiple tech and data-center names rather than broad NYSE issues, dividend-oriented and real-asset portfolios have been well-positioned to keep climbing while mega-cap growth digests its gains.
How does the current Nasdaq McClellan Summation Index (NASI) compare to the NYSE (NYSI), and what does that divergence mean for value vs. growth stocks?
There is a stark contrast right now between the NYSE McClellan Summation Index (NYSI) and the Nasdaq McClellan Summation Index (NASI), reflecting a classic institutional rotation out of high-multiple growth and into cash-flow-generating value and dividend sectors.
1. NYSE (NYSI) vs. Nasdaq (NASI) Breadth Snapshot
As of the Friday, November 13, 2026 market close, the two exchanges are operating in completely different breadth regimes:
2. Why the Two Indices Diverge So Sharply
Structural Composition: The Nasdaq is heavily weighted toward unprofitable early-stage tech, biotech, and speculative growth companies that bleed cumulative breadth over time—a historical dynamic where
$NASIspends far more time below zero than$NYSI.Meanwhile, the NYSE houses mature industrials, financials, utilities, REITs, and energy infrastructure firms. The November 2026 Catalyst: Following the November midterm elections, investors aggressively repriced AI capital-spending risks and regulatory scrutiny around data-center buildouts, triggering a sharp correction in semiconductors and mega-cap tech.
While that wave of forced deleveraging crushed Nasdaq breadth, capital rotated directly into value-oriented sectors, real assets, and resource/dividend names on the NYSE and TSX. Internal Nasdaq Split: Even within the Nasdaq, notice the gap between the Nasdaq-100 oscillator (+4.1) and All Nasdaq-listed stocks (+0.1). Larger, cash-rich tech companies are beginning to stabilize, whereas smaller, speculative growth names remain starved of liquidity.
3. What This Divergence Means for Value vs. Growth Stocks
When NYSI holds comfortably above zero while NASI sits deeply negative, it carries three practical implications for portfolio positioning:
Value and Dividend Leadership is Confirmed by Breadth: A positive
NYSIpaired with a negativeNASIshows that the market is not in a broad systemic liquidation—money is rotating, not exiting. Value stocks, financials, pipelines, utilities, and real estate investment trusts (REITs) benefit from lower valuation multiples and steady cash distributions that insulate them from growth-multiple compression.Growth Faces "Overhead Supply" Resistance: Because
NASIand the Nasdaq-100 Summation Index (-462) have suffered significant technical damage, rallies in beaten-down growth and AI infrastructure stocks are likely to encounter heavy resistance as trapped buyers sell into strength.Until the Nasdaq McClellan Oscillator sustains positive readings long enough to lift NASIback toward the zero line, growth rebounds remain tactical bounces rather than confirmed new uptrends.Watch for Spillover vs. Convergence: In healthy bull markets,
NYSIeventually pullsNASIhigher as confidence broadens back out. The key risk to monitor over the next few weeks is whether persistent weakness in speculative Nasdaq names eventually dragsNYSIback below zero—which would warn that liquidity tightening is spreading from growth into value. As long asNYSIholds above zero and works toward the +500 threshold, value and income-oriented equities retain the clear structural tailwind.
What does the high-low index say about the health of the NYSE?
The NYSE High-Low Index is flashing a cautionary, defensive warning that contrasts sharply with the constructive recovery shown by the McClellan Summation Index (NYSI).
While broad advance-decline participation has bounced back above zero since September, 52-week new lows have expanded aggressively over the past two weeks—pushing the High-Low Index down into weak territory (hovering in the low-to-mid 30% range as of early-to-mid November, down from its autumn rebound).
1. The Underlying Numbers (Close of Friday, Nov. 13, 2026)
The NYSE High-Low Index tracks the 10-day moving average of the New Highs Percent (New 52 Week Highs) / (New 52 Week Highs + New 52 Week Lows). Looking at the raw 52-week data heading into this weekend explains why the indicator is under pressure:
(Note: After dropping to an oversold trough of 26% during the September correction, NYSEHILO rebounded into autumn before rolling back down to 34% by November 6—and Friday's jump to 303 new lows keeps downward pressure on the 10-day average.)
2. What This Tells Us About the Health of the NYSE
When you read the High-Low Index alongside the McClellan Summation Index (+251.38), three specific takeaways emerge about the NYSE's internal health right now:
Bifurcation Between "Average Stocks" and "Broken Stocks": A positive
$NYSIpaired with 303 NYSE new lows means that while the median NYSE stock is holding steady or grinding slightly higher (71.8% of S&P 500 stocks remain above their 50-day moving average), a specific subset of interest-rate-sensitive, heavily indebted, or closed-end/preferred NYSE listings is actively breaking down to 52-week lows.A "Yellow Caution Light" on Offense: In Point & Figure and Dorsey Wright breadth frameworks, readings below 30%–35% indicate that the market is in a defensive posture.
Until the High-Low Index stops falling and reverses upward (which requires daily NYSE new lows to contract sharply from the 300+ level back below 100), breakout buying carries a high failure rate. Defensive Quality Is Outperforming: Looking at which stocks are hitting the few remaining 52-week highs versus the 52-week lows confirms the defensive tilt—blue-chip staples and healthcare names like Johnson & Johnson (
JNJ), Coca-Cola (KO), and Procter & Gamble (PG) are making new highs, while leveraged mortgage REITs (like Annaly Capital,NLY) and rate-sensitive foreign/cyclical names are populating the new-lows list.
3. What to Watch Next Week
For the NYSE to confirm that its autumn recovery has durable legs rather than stalling out, NYSE new 52-week lows need to contract below 100. In healthy uptrends, the McClellan Summation Index and the High-Low Index rise together; as long as new lows remain elevated above 200–300 per session, the High-Low Index is warning investors to prioritize balance-sheet quality and dividend durability over aggressive cyclical risk.
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Google Gemini
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