Fooled by Randomness Again

Fooled by Randomness Again

The Lucky Idiot is starting to get tired of his job of washing dishes. He wants something better for his life. He decides to go down to Hell and make a deal with the Devil, maybe sell his soul or something. The Devil is there to meet him at the door. The Devil tells him that the market for souls has been really overheated lately and he currently has all he can handle: Had to order more bunk beds last week. So he offers the Lucky Idiot something else. He has a gun with a thousand chambers in it, all of which are empty except ten. He tells the Lucky Idiot that if he puts the gun to his head and pulls the trigger and lives, he will be given $1,000 in cash. The Lucky Idiot says, that’s sounds just about right. He takes the gun and pulls the trigger. “Click”, he gets his thousand dollars.

The Lucky Idiot returns to his world and quits his job and pays off his rent and all of his bills but finds that he already has gone through all his money. He returns to Hell to try his hand at Russian Roulette with the Devil once again. “Click”. He has another $1000 dollars. How long has this game been going on he’s thinking. He runs back to his world and starts spending money on all the things that he wants. But he runs out of money again. I’ve got to start making money faster he’s thinking. He runs down to Hell again and you know it, he gets another thousand dollars. Well this goes on for awhile and the Lucky Idiot loves it. He forgets all about the risks he’s taking in putting the gun to his head and pulling the trigger. He is suffering from “recency bias”.  He thinks the future will be just like yesterday, last week and last month and so on. Time passes and he’s living like a king and has all the money he wants in the world.

One day he’s a little short on cash so he saunters down to Hell to put the gun to his head again. But this time, this time he blows his brains out all across the Devil’s new bunk beds (more souls?). But fear not as there really is no such thing as death; the Lucky Idiot finds himself instantly restored to life in a new body in a world just like the one he left. But he has forgotten about his parents, his childhood and all he ever knew about his former life but in addition he has forgotten that he was once again fooled by randomness.